arXiv:2503.22721cs.LGcs.SY2025-03被引 18

用图神经网络捕捉电网拓扑,提升高比例可再生能源下的状态预测精度。

PowerGNN: A Topology-Aware Graph Neural Network for Electricity Grids

  • 构建电网拓扑图,结合GraphSAGE与GRU建模时空依赖。
  • 在NREL 118系统上,平均RMSE达0.13至0.17,显著优于基线方法。
  • 适合电力系统规划、调度人员及智能电网研究者参考。

可再生能源渗透率上升给现代电力系统带来显著波动与不确定性,精准状态预测对可靠运行至关重要。传统预测方法常忽略电网固有拓扑结构,难以捕捉复杂的时空依赖关系。本文提出一种拓扑感知的图神经网络(GNN)框架,用于高可再生能源接入条件下的电力系统状态预测。构建基于电网网络的图表示,将母线和输电线路分别作为节点与边,设计融合GraphSAGE卷积与门控循环单元(GRU)的专用GNN架构,以建模系统动态中的空间与时间相关性。模型在包含真实同步可再生能源出力数据的NREL 118测试系统上训练与评估。结果表明,所提GNN优于全连接神经网络、线性回归及滚动均值等基线方法,在所有预测变量上平均均方根误差(RMSE)为0.13至0.17,且在不同空间位置与运行条件下表现稳定。这些结果凸显了拓扑感知学习在高可再生能源渗透未来电网中实现可扩展、鲁棒预测的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources introduces significant variability and uncertainty in modern power systems, making accurate state prediction critical for reliable grid operation. Conventional forecasting methods often neglect the power grid's inherent topology, limiting their ability to capture complex spatio temporal dependencies. This paper proposes a topology aware Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework for predicting power system states under high renewable integration. We construct a graph based representation of the power network, modeling buses and transmission lines as nodes and edges, and introduce a specialized GNN architecture that integrates GraphSAGE convolutions with Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) to model both spatial and temporal correlations in system dynamics. The model is trained and evaluated on the NREL 118 test system using realistic, time synchronous renewable generation profiles. Our results show that the proposed GNN outperforms baseline approaches including fully connected neural networks, linear regression, and rolling mean models, achieving substantial improvements in predictive accuracy. The GNN achieves average RMSEs of 0.13 to 0.17 across all predicted variables and demonstrates consistent performance across spatial locations and operational conditions. These results highlight the potential of topology aware learning for scalable and robust power system forecasting in future grids with high renewable penetration.

电网预测图神经网络可再生能源

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