通过跨市场协同与伪波动率优化,提升股票价格预测精度
CSPO: Cross-Market Synergistic Stock Price Movement Forecasting with Pseudo-volatility Optimization
- 引入跨市场协同机制,利用期货数据增强股票表征
- 设计伪波动率模块,动态调节预测置信度以提升鲁棒性
- 在多个公开基准上表现优于现有方法,适合量化金融研究者
股票市场作为金融市场基石,其价格走势预测是量化金融的核心挑战。随着市场快速发展,股票表现出外生性与波动异质性两大特征,显著增加预测难度。前者反映外部市场因素对价格的影响,后者体现不同股票在波动中预测难易程度的差异。本文提出跨市场协同与伪波动率优化框架(CSPO),采用深度神经网络架构,有效融合外部期货知识,丰富股票嵌入表示,从而增强预测能力。同时,引入伪波动率建模股票级预测置信度,使优化过程动态适应,进一步提升准确性与鲁棒性。大规模实验涵盖工业评估与公开基准测试,验证了CSPO在各项指标上均优于现有方法,且各模块有效性得到充分证明。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The stock market, as a cornerstone of the financial markets, places forecasting stock price movements at the forefront of challenges in quantitative finance. Emerging learning-based approaches have made significant progress in capturing the intricate and ever-evolving data patterns of modern markets. With the rapid expansion of the stock market, it presents two characteristics, i.e., stock exogeneity and volatility heterogeneity, that heighten the complexity of price forecasting. Specifically, while stock exogeneity reflects the influence of external market factors on price movements, volatility heterogeneity showcases the varying difficulty in movement forecasting against price fluctuations. In this work, we introduce the framework of Cross-market Synergy with Pseudo-volatility Optimization (CSPO). Specifically, CSPO implements an effective deep neural architecture to leverage external futures knowledge. This enriches stock embeddings with cross-market insights and thus enhances the CSPO's predictive capability. Furthermore, CSPO incorporates pseudo-volatility to model stock-specific forecasting confidence, enabling a dynamic adaptation of its optimization process to improve accuracy and robustness. Our extensive experiments, encompassing industrial evaluation and public benchmarking, highlight CSPO's superior performance over existing methods and effectiveness of all proposed modules contained therein.
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