arXiv:2503.22751cs.LGcs.AI2025-03被引 1

改进犯罪预测模型,让神经网络更懂时空差异。

Advancing Spatiotemporal Prediction using Artificial Intelligence: Extending the Framework of Geographically and Temporally Weighted Neural Network (GTWNN) for Differing Geographical and Temporal Contexts

  • 提出可适应不同地理时间背景的新型神经网络框架
  • 在伦敦和底特律数据上实现高精度预测结果
  • 适合需要精准时空建模的研究者与城市规划人员

本文旨在通过扩展人工神经网络(ANN)的数学框架,提升针对普遍时空问题的预测能力,并将其合理应用于实际场景。近年来,地理时空建模领域关注在深度学习模型中引入地理加权以应对空间非平稳性问题。本文提出一种半解析方法求解地理时间加权回归(GTWR),并应用于伦敦犯罪数据。结果表明该方法具有高精度预测表现,验证了其假设与近似合理性。论文对地理时间加权神经网络(GTWNN)框架进行了数学拓展,融合过往文献洞见,提出三项数学改进。这些改进组合生成五种新型神经网络,应用于伦敦与底特律数据集。结果显示其中一项改进冗余,另一项称为‘历史依赖模块’更具优势;其余两项构成三种新型网络设计,展现出对GTWNN的潜在提升。在两地数据上的评估强调:选择建模策略时需考虑具体地理与时间特征以增强模型适用性。整体而言,所提方法为时空建模中的更智能、准确与鲁棒的神经网络奠定了基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper aims at improving predictive crime models by extending the mathematical framework of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) tailored to general spatiotemporal problems and appropriately applying them. Recent advancements in the geospatial-temporal modelling field have focused on the inclusion of geographical weighting in their deep learning models to account for nonspatial stationarity, which is often apparent in spatial data. We formulate a novel semi-analytical approach to solving Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR), and applying it to London crime data. The results produce high-accuracy predictive evaluation scores that affirm the validity of the assumptions and approximations in the approach. This paper presents mathematical advances to the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Neural Network (GTWNN) framework, which offers a novel contribution to the field. Insights from past literature are harmoniously employed with the assumptions and approximations to generate three mathematical extensions to GTWNN's framework. Combinations of these extensions produce five novel ANNs, applied to the London and Detroit datasets. The results suggest that one of the extensions is redundant and is generally surpassed by another extension, which we term the history-dependent module. The remaining extensions form three novel ANN designs that pose potential GTWNN improvements. We evaluated the efficacy of various models in both the London and Detroit crime datasets, highlighting the importance of accounting for specific geographic and temporal characteristics when selecting modelling strategies to improve model suitability. In general, the proposed methods provide the foundations for a more context-aware, accurate, and robust ANN approach in spatio-temporal modelling.

时空预测神经网络犯罪预测

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