arXiv:2503.22753cs.LGcs.CY2025-03被引 2

用深度学习预测外卖需求,减少食物浪费和供应链波动。

Combating the Bullwhip Effect in Rival Online Food Delivery Platforms Using Deep Learning

  • 分两阶段LSTM模型,分别捕捉日内和日间需求变化
  • 对齐数据实现0.90的预测准确率,库存波动降低超60%
  • 适合物流优化与餐饮供应链管理者参考

易腐物品浪费已引发重大健康与经济危机,加剧企业不确定性与客户需求波动。在线外卖服务中频繁且不可预测的订单进一步加剧了供应链管理低效,导致牛鞭效应——表现为缺货、库存过剩及效率下降。精准需求预测可稳定库存、优化供应商订货并减少浪费。本文提出一个包含餐厅、外卖平台与客户的第三方物流(3PL)供应链模型,并构建基于双阶段长短期记忆网络(LSTM)的需求预测方法:第一阶段为日内预测,捕捉短期波动;第二阶段为日预测,预估整体需求。采用2023年1月至2025年1月来自Swiggy与Zomato的两年数据,通过离散事件仿真与网格搜索优化LSTM超参数。使用均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)与决定系数(R-squared)评估性能,以R-squared为主要指标。第一阶段在Zomato上达到0.69,在Swiggy上达0.71,训练耗时12分钟;第二阶段提升至Zomato 0.88,Swiggy 0.90,训练仅需8分钟。为应对需求波动,结合报童模型动态调整餐厅库存。实验显示,该框架显著缓解牛鞭效应:第一阶段供应链不稳定性由2.61降至0.96,第二阶段由2.19降至0.80,有效减少食物浪费并维持最优库存水平。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The wastage of perishable items has led to significant health and economic crises, increasing business uncertainty and fluctuating customer demand. This issue is worsened by online food delivery services, where frequent and unpredictable orders create inefficiencies in supply chain management, contributing to the bullwhip effect. This effect results in stockouts, excess inventory, and inefficiencies. Accurate demand forecasting helps stabilize inventory, optimize supplier orders, and reduce waste. This paper presents a Third-Party Logistics (3PL) supply chain model involving restaurants, online food apps, and customers, along with a deep learning-based demand forecasting model using a two-phase Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. Phase one, intra-day forecasting, captures short-term variations, while phase two, daily forecasting, predicts overall demand. A two-year dataset from January 2023 to January 2025 from Swiggy and Zomato is used, employing discrete event simulation and grid search for optimal LSTM hyperparameters. The proposed method is evaluated using RMSE, MAE, and R-squared score, with R-squared as the primary accuracy measure. Phase one achieves an R-squared score of 0.69 for Zomato and 0.71 for Swiggy with a training time of 12 minutes, while phase two improves to 0.88 for Zomato and 0.90 for Swiggy with a training time of 8 minutes. To mitigate demand fluctuations, restaurant inventory is dynamically managed using the newsvendor model, adjusted based on forecasted demand. The proposed framework significantly reduces the bullwhip effect, improving forecasting accuracy and supply chain efficiency. For phase one, supply chain instability decreases from 2.61 to 0.96, and for phase two, from 2.19 to 0.80. This demonstrates the model's effectiveness in minimizing food waste and maintaining optimal restaurant inventory levels.

需求预测深度学习供应链优化

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