arXiv:2503.23621cs.LG2025-03被引 6

简单前馈网络在时间序列预测中表现不输复杂模型,且更高效。

Simple Feedfoward Neural Networks are Almost All You Need for Time Series Forecasting

  • 用简单前馈网络替代复杂模型,捕捉时序规律。
  • 单变量模型已足够,多变量交互提升有限。
  • 提出新评估方法,强调基线对比重要性。

时间序列数据广泛存在于金融、医疗等领域,各领域结构各异。尽管先进模型如Transformer和图神经网络(GNN)在时序预测中流行,主要源于其在语言建模中的成功,但其复杂性未必必要。本文表明,简单前馈神经网络(SFNN)可达到甚至超越现有先进模型的性能,同时更小、更快、更鲁棒。分析显示,多数情况下单变量SFNN已足够,多序列间建模带来的收益有限;即使序列间关系强,基础多变量SFNN仍具竞争力。我们还探讨关键设计选择,提供决策指南,并批判现有基准测试实践,提出改进评估协议。虽然SFNN并非所有场景最优(故标题含“几乎”),但应作为未来时序预测方法的必备基线。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series data are everywhere -- from finance to healthcare -- and each domain brings its own unique complexities and structures. While advanced models like Transformers and graph neural networks (GNNs) have gained popularity in time series forecasting, largely due to their success in tasks like language modeling, their added complexity is not always necessary. In our work, we show that simple feedforward neural networks (SFNNs) can achieve performance on par with, or even exceeding, these state-of-the-art models, while being simpler, smaller, faster, and more robust. Our analysis indicates that, in many cases, univariate SFNNs are sufficient, implying that modeling interactions between multiple series may offer only marginal benefits. Even when inter-series relationships are strong, a basic multivariate SFNN still delivers competitive results. We also examine some key design choices and offer guidelines on making informed decisions. Additionally, we critique existing benchmarking practices and propose an improved evaluation protocol. Although SFNNs may not be optimal for every situation (hence the ``almost'' in our title) they serve as a strong baseline that future time series forecasting methods should always be compared against.

时间序列前馈网络基线模型

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