arXiv:2504.00009q-bio.QMcs.AI2025-04被引 6

用深度学习模型同时预测1-24小时内的低血糖,提升糖尿病管理安全性。

Deep Learning-Based Hypoglycemia Classification Across Multiple Prediction Horizons

  • 融合短时(2小时)与长时(24小时)预测,统一建模多时间窗口
  • LSTM模型在九类分类中表现最佳,4小时内检测率达60%以上
  • 个体化模型召回率高但随时间推移下降,适合临床预警系统

1型糖尿病管理可通过预测性机器学习算法显著改善,以降低低血糖等不良事件风险。低血糖指血糖低于70 mg/dL,常由胰岛素过量、漏餐或运动引发,其无症状特性导致难以及时干预,因此机器学习模型对早期检测至关重要。本研究将短时(最多2小时)与长时(最多24小时)预测时间窗整合至单一分类模型中,预测时间为5–15分钟、15–30分钟、30分钟–1小时、1–2小时、2–4小时、4–8小时、8–12小时及12–24小时。此外,还对比了仅预测4小时内低血糖的简化模型。采用ResNet与LSTM模型,输入为葡萄糖水平、胰岛素剂量和加速度数据。结果表明,LSTM模型在九类分类任务中表现更优。个体化模型在前三个时间窗(0、1、2类)分别达到98%、72%和50%的召回率;而基于人群的六类模型在至少60%的事件中实现检测。相比之下,更长预测时间窗仍具挑战性,可能需依赖不同模型方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) management can be significantly enhanced through the use of predictive machine learning (ML) algorithms, which can mitigate the risk of adverse events like hypoglycemia. Hypoglycemia, characterized by blood glucose levels below 70 mg/dL, is a life-threatening condition typically caused by excessive insulin administration, missed meals, or physical activity. Its asymptomatic nature impedes timely intervention, making ML models crucial for early detection. This study integrates short- (up to 2h) and long-term (up to 24h) prediction horizons (PHs) within a single classification model to enhance decision support. The predicted times are 5-15 min, 15-30 min, 30 min-1h, 1-2h, 2-4h, 4-8h, 8-12h, and 12-24h before hypoglycemia. In addition, a simplified model classifying up to 4h before hypoglycemia is compared. We trained ResNet and LSTM models on glucose levels, insulin doses, and acceleration data. The results demonstrate the superiority of the LSTM models when classifying nine classes. In particular, subject-specific models yielded better performance but achieved high recall only for classes 0, 1, and 2 with 98%, 72%, and 50%, respectively. A population-based six-class model improved the results with at least 60% of events detected. In contrast, longer PHs remain challenging with the current approach and may be considered with different models.

低血糖预测深度学习糖尿病管理多时域

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