arXiv:2504.00120cs.LG2025-04被引 6

用深度学习预测无线网络电磁场暴露,还能给出可信的不确定性范围。

EMForecaster: A Deep Learning Framework for Time Series Forecasting in Wireless Networks with Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification

  • 通过多尺度分块和可逆归一化提取时序特征
  • 点预测比SOTA模型提升超50%,区间预测平衡度提升近50%
  • 无需假设数据分布,适合对可靠性要求高的网络规划场景

随着无线技术发展,预测电磁场(EMF)暴露对主动分配频谱与功率、规划网络部署至关重要。本文提出深度学习时间序列预测框架EMForecaster,采用分块处理多尺度时序模式,结合沿时间和分块维度的可逆实例归一化与混合操作,高效提取特征。引入独立于数据分布的共形预测机制,实现无分布假设的不确定性量化,确保真实值落在预测区间内的概率为1−α,即覆盖率。但覆盖率越高,区间越宽,存在权衡。为此,提出新的权衡评分(Trade-off Score),平衡预测可信度与区间宽度。实验表明,EMForecaster在多个短长期预测任务中表现优异:点预测相比Transformer提升53.97%,优于所有基线平均值38.44%;共形预测的权衡评分较平均基线提升24.73%,较Transformer提升49.17%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

With the recent advancements in wireless technologies, forecasting electromagnetic field (EMF) exposure has become critical to enable proactive network spectrum and power allocation, as well as network deployment planning. In this paper, we develop a deep learning (DL) time series forecasting framework referred to as \textit{EMForecaster}. The proposed DL architecture employs patching to process temporal patterns at multiple scales, complemented by reversible instance normalization and mixing operations along both temporal and patch dimensions for efficient feature extraction. We augment {EMForecaster} with a conformal prediction mechanism, which is independent of the data distribution, to enhance the trustworthiness of model predictions via uncertainty quantification of forecasts. This conformal prediction mechanism ensures that the ground truth lies within a prediction interval with target error rate $α$, where $1-α$ is referred to as coverage. However, a trade-off exists, as increasing coverage often results in wider prediction intervals. To address this challenge, we propose a new metric called the \textit{Trade-off Score}, that balances trustworthiness of the forecast (i.e., coverage) and the width of prediction interval. Our experiments demonstrate that EMForecaster achieves superior performance across diverse EMF datasets, spanning both short-term and long-term prediction horizons. In point forecasting tasks, EMForecaster substantially outperforms current state-of-the-art DL approaches, showing improvements of 53.97\% over the Transformer architecture and 38.44\% over the average of all baseline models. EMForecaster also exhibits an excellent balance between prediction interval width and coverage in conformal forecasting, measured by the tradeoff score, showing marked improvements of 24.73\% over the average baseline and 49.17\% over the Transformer architecture.

时间序列不确定性量化无线网络深度学习

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