提出DRAN模型,动态适应时空数据分布与关系变化,提升预测准确性。
DRAN: A Distribution and Relation Adaptive Network for Spatio-temporal Forecasting
- 设计空间因子学习模块,实现时间归一化不破坏节点空间关系。
- 引入动态-静态融合机制,有效捕捉节点间的远近关系变化。
- 适用于气象与交通流预测,对非平稳时空数据有强鲁棒性。
准确的时空系统预测对于系统管理、控制和危机预防至关重要。然而,许多时空系统的固有时间变异性使得在非平稳条件下难以实现精确预测。为应对非平稳性,我们提出分布与关系自适应网络(DRAN),能够动态适应随时间变化的关系与分布。尽管时间归一化和反归一化常用于应对分布偏移,但该操作在时空场景中并不适用,因为它会缩放节点的时间序列,可能破坏节点间的空间关系。为此,我们设计了空间因子学习模块(SFL),使归一化与反归一化过程得以保持空间关系。为适应传感器间空间关系的动态变化,提出动态-静态融合学习模块(DSFL),通过自适应融合比例机制,有效整合动态与静态关系特征。此外,引入随机学习模块以捕捉时空表示中的噪声成分。实验结果表明,该方法在气象预测与交通流预测任务上优于现有先进方法。可视化显示,DSFL能有效捕捉节点间的局部与远距离关系,而SFL在多种时间归一化操作下均能高效保持空间关系。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate predictions of spatio-temporal systems are crucial for tasks such as system management, control, and crisis prevention. However, the inherent time variance of many spatio-temporal systems poses challenges to achieving accurate predictions whenever stationarity is not granted. In order to address non-stationarity, we propose a Distribution and Relation Adaptive Network (DRAN) capable of dynamically adapting to relation and distribution changes over time. While temporal normalization and de-normalization are frequently used techniques to adapt to distribution shifts, this operation is not suitable for the spatio-temporal context as temporal normalization scales the time series of nodes and possibly disrupts the spatial relations among nodes. In order to address this problem, a Spatial Factor Learner (SFL) module is developed that enables the normalization and de-normalization process. To adapt to dynamic changes in spatial relationships among sensors, we propose a Dynamic-Static Fusion Learner (DSFL) module that effectively integrates features learned from both dynamic and static relations through an adaptive fusion ratio mechanism. Furthermore, we introduce a Stochastic Learner to capture the noisy components of spatio-temporal representations. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods on weather prediction and traffic flow forecasting tasks.Experimental results show that our SFL efficiently preserves spatial relationships across various temporal normalization operations. Visualizations of the learned dynamic and static relations demonstrate that DSFL can capture both local and distant relationships between nodes.
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