分析24万笔信贷数据，发现欧盟复苏基金项目显著提升企业新贷款。
What Can 240,000 New Credit Transactions Tell Us About the Impact of NGEU Funds?
- 用面板数据模型分析采购中标对新贷款的动态影响。
- NGEU项目使企业新增贷款增幅比传统采购高，但使用率较低。
- 结合高频金融数据，展示大数据助力政策优化潜力。
通过面板数据局部投影模型，并控制企业特征、采购投标属性及宏观经济条件，研究估算采购中标对新贷款的动态影响，该指标比信贷总量变化更精确。分析还考察了企业规模、行业、信贷期限及价值链位置带来的信用响应异质性。实证结果表明，公共采购中标显著增加新贷款，其中NGEU资助合同带来的信贷扩张强于传统采购。结果说明NGEU采购项目的影响与历史采购趋势高度一致，差异主要源于更低的使用率。此外，将高频金融数据与采购记录融合，凸显了大数据在优化公共政策设计中的潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Using a panel data local projections model and controlling for firm characteristics, procurement bid attributes, and macroeconomic conditions, the study estimates the dynamic effects of procurement awards on new lending, a more precise measure than the change in the stock of credit. The analysis further examines heterogeneity in credit responses based on firm size, industry, credit maturity, and value chain position of the firms. The empirical evidence confirms that public procurement awards significantly increase new lending, with NGEU-funded contracts generating stronger credit expansion than traditional procurement during the recent period. The results show that the impact of NGEU procurement programs aligns closely with historical procurement impacts, with differences driven mainly by lower utilization rates. Moreover, integrating high-frequency financial data with procurement records highlights the potential of Big Data in refining public policy design.
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