通过稀疏精度矩阵建模,提升大规模区间时间序列预测精度。
Block Toeplitz Sparse Precision Matrix Estimation for Large-Scale Interval-Valued Time Series Forecasting
- 将区间序列分段聚类转化为托普利茨稀疏精度矩阵估计问题。
- 结合动态规划与交替方向法,实现高效求解并保证收敛性。
- 适用于需要提取稳定特征的大规模时间序列场景。
区间值时间序列(ITS)在诸多领域日益常见,但现有研究尚未涉及大规模ITS的建模与预测。本文提出一种针对大规模ITS的特征提取流程,包含自动分段、聚类及特征迁移学习等关键步骤,可无缝集成于各类预测模型。具体地,将自动分段与聚类转化为托普利茨稀疏精度矩阵估计与标签分配问题,采用期望最大化算法将高度非凸优化分解为两个子问题,并分别设计高效动态规划与交替方向法求解,同时建立其收敛性理论。利用联合递归图(JRP)对子序列进行图像化表示,并为每个聚类分配类别标签,构建图像数据集;随后选择合适神经网络在该数据集上训练以提取特征,用于后续预测。真实数据应用表明,该方法能有效获取原始数据的不变表示,显著提升预测性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Modeling and forecasting interval-valued time series (ITS) have attracted considerable attention due to their growing presence in various contexts. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no efforts to model large-scale ITS. In this paper, we propose a feature extraction procedure for large-scale ITS, which involves key steps such as auto-segmentation and clustering, and feature transfer learning. This procedure can be seamlessly integrated with any suitable prediction models for forecasting purposes. Specifically, we transform the automatic segmentation and clustering of ITS into the estimation of Toeplitz sparse precision matrices and assignment set. The majorization-minimization algorithm is employed to convert this highly non-convex optimization problem into two subproblems. We derive efficient dynamic programming and alternating direction method to solve these two subproblems alternately and establish their convergence properties. By employing the Joint Recurrence Plot (JRP) to image subsequence and assigning a class label to each cluster, an image dataset is constructed. Then, an appropriate neural network is chosen to train on this image dataset and used to extract features for the next step of forecasting. Real data applications demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively obtain invariant representations of the raw data and enhance forecasting performance.
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