评估大模型在肾移植分配中的公平性,发现其结果因任务不同而出现系统性偏差。
Evaluating Large Language Models for Fair and Reliable Organ Allocation
- 设计选择与排序双任务,模拟真实分配流程
- 暴露率指标显示公平,概率指标揭示群体偏好倾向
- 同一模型在不同任务中表现相反,警示应用风险
医疗领域正考虑将大语言模型(LLM)用于高风险临床决策,如器官分配。然而现有评估方法存在局限:基准过于简单,且准确率指标无法应对缺乏明确真值的问题。为更真实、公正地建模肾移植分配,我们首先测试了LLMs的医学知识,确认其是否理解关键临床因素。在此基础上,设计两项任务:(1) Choose-One——从候选者中选出一人接收肾脏;(2) Rank-All——对所有等待者进行排序,更贴近现实分配流程。我们在三个LLM上评估发现,基于暴露率的公平性指标显示结果均衡,但基于概率的指标揭示出系统性偏好,特定人群被集中在高排名层级。此外,性别和年龄等特征的偏好呈现任务依赖性,在Choose-One与Rank-All中甚至出现相反趋势,即便在最高排名也如此。结果表明,当前LLMs可能在实际分配中引入不公,亟需严格公平性评估与人工监管。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Medical institutions are considering the use of LLMs in high-stakes clinical decision-making, such as organ allocation. In such sensitive use cases, evaluating fairness is imperative. However, existing evaluation methods often fall short; benchmarks are too simplistic to capture real-world complexity, and accuracy-based metrics fail to address the absence of a clear ground truth. To realistically and fairly model organ allocation, specifically kidney allocation, we begin by testing the medical knowledge of LLMs to determine whether they understand the clinical factors required to make sound allocation decisions. Building on this foundation, we design two tasks: (1) Choose-One and (2) Rank-All. In Choose-One, LLMs select a single candidate from a list of potential candidates to receive a kidney. In this scenario, we assess fairness across demographics using traditional fairness metrics, such as proportional parity. In Rank-All, LLMs rank all candidates waiting for a kidney, reflecting real-world allocation processes more closely, where an organ is passed down a ranked list until allocated. Our evaluation on three LLMs reveals a divergence between fairness metrics: while exposure-based metrics suggest equitable outcomes, probability-based metrics uncover systematic preferential sorting, where specific groups were clustered in upper-ranking tiers. Furthermore, we observe that demographic preferences are highly task-dependent, showing inverted trends between Choose-One and Rank-All tasks, even when considering the topmost rank. Overall, our results indicate that current LLMs can introduce inequalities in real-world allocation scenarios, underscoring the urgent need for rigorous fairness evaluation and human oversight before their use in high-stakes decision-making.
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