arXiv:2504.03777cs.LGcs.AI2025-04KDD被引 3

为游戏成瘾预测设计可解释的多变量时间序列模型,兼顾精准与可干预性。

Explainable and Interpretable Forecasts on Non-Smooth Multivariate Time Series for Responsible Gameplay

  • 提出AFN模型,统一优化预测精度、轨迹可读性与多维特征解释。
  • 预测误差降低25%,提前4周识别超23%潜在成瘾玩家。
  • 可定位高风险时间节点,支持个性化及时干预,适合心理安全场景。

多变量时间序列(MTS)预测在神经网络(如Transformer)推动下已实现极低误差。但在影响心理健康的游戏中过度沉迷等关键场景中,仅准确预测而无解释证据毫无意义。因此需具备可解释性——预测轨迹的中间表示清晰可懂;以及可解释性——能访问关注的输入特征与事件,以实现对高危玩家的个性化、及时干预。现有研究多聚焦于时间平滑的单过程数据,但在线多人游戏数据存在因玩家胜负结果与继续参与意图内在正交导致的时间随机性难题。本文提出新型深度可行动预测网络(AFN),一次性解决三个目标:1)预测精度;2)平滑可理解的轨迹;3)基于多维输入特征的解释,应对非平滑时间数据挑战。AFN建立新基准:(i)相较SOTA的SOM-VAE模型,玩家数据上预测均方误差(MSE)降低25%;(ii)将玩家异常发展归因至具体未来时间点,通过特定可行动特征使近未来成瘾玩家数量减少超18%;(iii)平均提前4周主动检测出超23%(较SOTA提升100%)的潜在成瘾玩家。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multi-variate Time Series (MTS) forecasting has made large strides (with very negligible errors) through recent advancements in neural networks, e.g., Transformers. However, in critical situations like predicting gaming overindulgence that affects one's mental well-being; an accurate forecast without a contributing evidence (explanation) is irrelevant. Hence, it becomes important that the forecasts are Interpretable - intermediate representation of the forecasted trajectory is comprehensible; as well as Explainable - attentive input features and events are accessible for a personalized and timely intervention of players at risk. While the contributing state of the art research on interpretability primarily focuses on temporally-smooth single-process driven time series data, our online multi-player gameplay data demonstrates intractable temporal randomness due to intrinsic orthogonality between player's game outcome and their intent to engage further. We introduce a novel deep Actionable Forecasting Network (AFN), which addresses the inter-dependent challenges associated with three exclusive objectives - 1) forecasting accuracy; 2) smooth comprehensible trajectory and 3) explanations via multi-dimensional input features while tackling the challenges introduced by our non-smooth temporal data, together in one single solution. AFN establishes a \it{new benchmark} via: (i) achieving 25% improvement on the MSE of the forecasts on player data in comparison to the SOM-VAE based SOTA networks; (ii) attributing unfavourable progression of a player's time series to a specific future time step(s), with the premise of eliminating near-future overindulgent player volume by over 18% with player specific actionable inputs feature(s) and (iii) proactively detecting over 23% (100% jump from SOTA) of the to-be overindulgent, players on an average, 4 weeks in advance.

时间序列可解释性游戏行为预警系统

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