研究如何用断点设计分析分布型结果,揭示政策对收入分布的影响。
Regression Discontinuity Design with Distribution-Valued Outcomes
- 提出基于随机分位数的新型断点方法,处理分布型结果。
- 在模拟中证明新方法无偏且一致,传统方法会严重偏差。
- 适用于研究政策对收入、工资等分布结构的影响,适合政经学者。
本文提出分布型结果的断点设计(R3D),将标准断点框架拓展至结果为分布而非标量的情形。此类场景常见于处理依据高层次指标分配而结果关注个体分布的情况,例如基于企业营收门槛发放补贴,但关心的是企业内员工工资分布。由于传统断点方法无法处理这种双层随机性,本文提出基于随机分布的新方法。目标估计量为“局部平均分位数处理效应”,即对随机分位数取平均。为此引入两种相关估计方法:一种将局部多项式回归扩展至随机分位数,另一种基于局部Fréchet回归(一种函数型回归)。对两个估计量,均建立了渐近正态性,并发展了统一的去偏置置信带及数据驱动的带宽选择程序。模拟验证了理论性质,表明现有方法在此设定下存在偏误且不一致。随后,将该方法应用于美国州长选举临近投票结果设计,研究州长政党控制对州内收入分布的影响。结果显示,在民主党州长治理下存在典型的公平-效率权衡,主要由顶层收入下降驱动。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fréchet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.
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