arXiv:2504.04739cs.LGcs.CY2025-04被引 1

用统一图神经网络提升城市健康预测,兼顾空间与网络结构。

UST-GNN: A Unified Spatial--Topological Graph Neural Network Framework for Urban Analytics--Demonstrated through a Case Study on Urban Health Prediction

  • 融合邻里连接、异质特征与位置嵌入的统一框架
  • 在伦敦4835个社区上提升预测准确率8.4%~13.2%
  • 可解释嵌入助力政策分析,适合城市规划者使用

理解社会、人口、环境与空间因素如何共同影响城市结果,对可持续城市发展和基于证据的政策制定至关重要。传统统计方法难以捕捉复杂非线性关系,而许多机器学习方法忽视了城市系统中空间自相关与网络拓扑的协同作用。现有地理人工智能进展仅部分解决这些问题,常将空间效应、图结构、评估与可解释性分开处理。本文提出UST-GNN——一种统一的空间-拓扑图神经网络框架,将邻域连接、异质城市特征与位置/定位嵌入整合为单一表示。基于包含超过150个环境与社会人口变量、六个处方结果的MedSAT数据集,在大伦敦4,835个社区上,该框架优于强统计、地理增强及图机器学习基线模型,严格空间交叉验证下外样本$R^2$提升8.4%至13.2%。我们进一步引入轻量级主成分模块,实现节点嵌入的地理可解释性,关联政策相关协变量。分析复现既有规律,揭示争议关系的新视角,并发现需进一步因果探究的新型预测因子。这些成果表明,基于图的空间机器学习在城市健康分析、环境不平等评估与证据驱动的城市政策中具有价值。除预测性能提升外,UST-GNN提供可嵌入城市数字孪生工作流的统一GeoAI分析管线,支持情景测试、监测与数据驱动决策,助力更健康、可持续的城市发展。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Understanding how social, demographic, environmental, and spatial factors jointly shape urban outcomes is essential for sustainable urban development and evidence-based policy. Traditional statistical approaches often struggle to capture complex non-linear relationships, while many machine learning methods overlook the joint roles of spatial autocorrelation and network topology in urban systems. Recent advances in GeoAI have addressed these challenges only partially, often treating spatial effects, graph structure, evaluation, and interpretability separately. We present \textbf{UST-GNN}, a unified spatial--topological graph neural network framework that integrates neighbourhood connectivity, heterogeneous urban features, and positional/locational embeddings into a single representation. Using the MedSAT dataset, which contains over 150 environmental and socio-demographic variables and six prescription outcomes across 4,835 neighbourhoods in Greater London, UST-GNN outperforms strong statistical, geographically enhanced, and graph Machine Learning baselines, improving out-of-sample $R^2$ by 8.4--13.2\% under strict spatial cross-validation. We further introduce a lightweight principal-component module to interpret learned node embeddings geographically and relate them to policy-relevant covariates. The resulting analyses recover established patterns, offer new perspectives on debated associations, and reveal novel predictors warranting further causal investigation. Together, these findings demonstrate the value of graph-based spatial machine learning for urban health analytics, environmental inequality assessment, and evidence-based urban policy. Beyond predictive gains, UST-GNN provides a unified GeoAI analytical pipeline that can be embedded into urban digital twin workflows for scenario testing, monitoring, and data-informed decision-making for healthier, more sustainable cities.

城市健康图神经网络地理智能可解释性

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