arXiv:2504.04766cs.LGcs.AI2025-04被引 1

将气象大模型技术迁移到海洋预测,提升全球海况预报精度。

KunPeng: A Global Ocean Environmental Model

  • 引入地形自适应掩码机制,缓解陆海交界处训练发散问题。
  • 采用循环可变形卷积网络,实现多尺度海洋特征精细建模。
  • 在0.25°分辨率下15天预测准确率达0.80,优于现有模型0.01-0.08。

受大气-海洋物理耦合机制相似性的启发,本研究创新性地将气象大模型技术迁移至海洋领域,构建了昆仑鹏(KunPeng)全球海洋环境预测模型。针对海洋空间的不连续特性,提出地形自适应掩码约束机制,有效缓解陆海边界处突变梯度导致的训练发散问题。为充分融合远、中、近程海洋特征,采用经度循环可变形卷积网络(LC-DCN)增强动态感受野,实现多尺度海洋特征的精细化建模。引入可变形卷积增强的多步预测模块(DC-MTP),强化时间依赖特征提取能力。实验表明,该模型在0.25°分辨率下15天全球预测的平均准确率(ACC)达0.80,优于对比模型0.01-0.08;均方误差(MSE)为0.41(降低5%-31%),平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.44(降低0.6%-21%)。尤其在海表参数预测、深海区域表征和流速场预报方面表现显著提升。通过横向比较不同尺度算子在海洋领域的适用性,揭示在慢变海洋过程中局部算子显著优于全局算子,验证了动态特征金字塔表示在预测海洋物理参数中的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Inspired by the similarity of the atmosphere-ocean physical coupling mechanism, this study innovatively migrates meteorological large-model techniques to the ocean domain, constructing the KunPeng global ocean environmental prediction model. Aimed at the discontinuous characteristics of marine space, we propose a terrain-adaptive mask constraint mechanism to mitigate effectively training divergence caused by abrupt gradients at land-sea boundaries. To fully integrate far-, medium-, and close-range marine features, a longitude-cyclic deformable convolution network (LC-DCN) is employed to enhance the dynamic receptive field, achieving refined modeling of multi-scale oceanic characteristics. A Deformable Convolution-enhanced Multi-Step Prediction module (DC-MTP) is employed to strengthen temporal dependency feature extraction capabilities. Experimental results demonstrate that this model achieves an average ACC of 0.80 in 15-day global predictions at 0.25$^\circ$ resolution, outperforming comparative models by 0.01-0.08. The average mean squared error (MSE) is 0.41 (representing a 5%-31% reduction) and the average mean absolute error (MAE) is 0.44 (0.6%-21% reduction) compared to other models. Significant improvements are particularly observed in sea surface parameter prediction, deep-sea region characterization, and current velocity field forecasting. Through a horizontal comparison of the applicability of operators at different scales in the marine domain, this study reveals that local operators significantly outperform global operators under slow-varying oceanic processes, demonstrating the effectiveness of dynamic feature pyramid representations in predicting marine physical parameters.

海洋建模深度学习预测精度可变形卷积

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