arXiv:2504.05425cs.LGcs.AI2025-04

用专家知识增强模型,预测棋手走法准确率提升25%。

A Behavior-Based Knowledge Representation Improves Prediction of Players' Moves in Chess by 25%

  • 结合棋类专家经验进行特征工程,挖掘中间水平棋手的走法模式。
  • 在开局阶段对非大师级棋手的下一步走法预测准确率提升25%。
  • 适合研究人类行为建模与人机交互的AI研究人员参考。

预测战略游戏中玩家的行为,尤其是国际象棋这类复杂游戏,面临巨大挑战。一方面,从初始布局出发,潜在局面数量庞大,使得预测下一步极为困难;另一方面,人类行为本身具有不可预测性——不同风格、决策方式和心理倾向导致走法多样且常出人意料。尽管像Deep Blue、AlphaZero和Stockfish这样的引擎能击败顶尖棋手,但对大多数普通棋手(非大师级)的走法预测仍不理想。本文提出一种新方法,将领域专家知识与机器学习结合,通过基于专业知识的特征工程,挖掘中间水平棋手在开局阶段的走法规律。实验表明,该方法显著提升了对人类走法的预测能力,在特定条件下预测准确率提高25%。这一框架为理解人类行为、推动人工智能与人机交互的发展提供了新思路。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting player behavior in strategic games, especially complex ones like chess, presents a significant challenge. The difficulty arises from several factors. First, the sheer number of potential outcomes stemming from even a single position, starting from the initial setup, makes forecasting a player's next move incredibly complex. Second, and perhaps even more challenging, is the inherent unpredictability of human behavior. Unlike the optimized play of engines, humans introduce a layer of variability due to differing playing styles and decision-making processes. Each player approaches the game with a unique blend of strategic thinking, tactical awareness, and psychological tendencies, leading to diverse and often unexpected actions. This stylistic variation, combined with the capacity for creativity and even irrational moves, makes predicting human play difficult. Chess, a longstanding benchmark of artificial intelligence research, has seen significant advancements in tools and automation. Engines like Deep Blue, AlphaZero, and Stockfish can defeat even the most skilled human players. However, despite their exceptional ability to outplay top-level grandmasters, predicting the moves of non-grandmaster players, who comprise most of the global chess community -- remains complicated for these engines. This paper proposes a novel approach combining expert knowledge with machine learning techniques to predict human players' next moves. By applying feature engineering grounded in domain expertise, we seek to uncover the patterns in the moves of intermediate-level chess players, particularly during the opening phase of the game. Our methodology offers a promising framework for anticipating human behavior, advancing both the fields of AI and human-computer interaction.

行为预测国际象棋知识融合机器学习

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