区分需求数据中的虚假零值与真实零值,提升预测准确性。
Why do zeroes happen? A model-based approach for demand classification
- 分两阶段识别人为零值并分类需求类型
- 使用统计建模与信息准则优化特征选择
- 可降低库存成本,适合供应链决策者
精准的需求预测对库存管理、生产计划和决策至关重要。选择合适的模型和特征以捕捉数据模式是主要挑战之一。当销售记录中出现零值时,问题更加复杂——这些零值可能源于自然现象或异常(如缺货、记录错误)。误处理零值可能导致不恰当的预测方法,从而影响决策。此外,需求本身具有不同根本特征,能准确区分类型将显著提升预测精度和决策效果。本文提出一种基于模型的两阶段分类框架:第一阶段识别人为产生的零值,第二阶段将需求分为若干类型:常规/间歇性、平滑间歇/波动型、分数型/计数型。该框架依赖统计建模与信息准则。我们论证不同需求类型需要不同特征,并实证表明,相比直接应用原始数据,引入生成特征和两阶段框架能提升预测精度,降低库存成本。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Effective demand forecasting is critical for inventory management, production planning, and decision making across industries. Selecting the appropriate model and suitable features to efficiently capture patterns in the data is one of the main challenges in demand forecasting. In reality, this becomes even more complicated when the recorded sales have zeroes, which can happen naturally or due to some anomalies, such as stockouts and recording errors. Mistreating the zeroes can lead to the application of inappropriate forecasting methods, and thus leading to poor decision making. Furthermore, the demand itself can have different fundamental characteristics, and being able to distinguish one type from another might bring substantial benefits in terms of accuracy and thus decision making. We propose a two-stage model-based classification framework that in the first step, identifies artificially occurring zeroes, and in the second, classifies demand to one of the possible types: regular/intermittent, intermittent smooth/lumpy, fractional/count. The framework relies on statistical modelling and information criteria. We argue that different types of demand need different features, and show empirically that they tend to increase the accuracy of the forecasting methods and reduce inventory costs compared to those applied directly to the dataset without the generated features and the two-stage framework.
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