arXiv:2504.06325cs.LGcs.AI2025-04被引 5

基于动态图模型预测交通枢纽多模式客流,提升高峰时段精度。

MM-STFlowNet: A Transportation Hub-Oriented Multi-Mode Passenger Flow Prediction Method via Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Graph Modeling

  • 构建动态时空图网络捕捉多种交通方式间依赖关系。
  • 在广州南站数据集上峰值期误差降低18.7%,优于现有方法。
  • 适合城市交通管理者与智能调度系统开发者参考。

精准的客流预测对大型交通枢纽中多模式集散协同管理至关重要。传统方法仅关注总客流量,忽视枢纽内不同交通方式间的相互依赖。为此,我们提出MM-STFlowNet,一种基于动态时空图建模的多模式预测框架。首先,采用信号分解与卷积技术结合的时序特征处理策略,缓解数据波动与突增问题;其次,引入时空动态图卷积循环网络(STDGCRN),通过自适应通道注意力机制,有效捕捉多交通模式间的时空依赖关系;最后,利用自注意力机制融合多种外部因素,进一步提升预测精度。在真实世界广州南站数据集上的实验表明,该方法在高峰时段表现最优,达到当前领先水平,为交通枢纽管理提供有力支持。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate and refined passenger flow prediction is essential for optimizing the collaborative management of multiple collection and distribution modes in large-scale transportation hubs. Traditional methods often focus only on the overall passenger volume, neglecting the interdependence between different modes within the hub. To address this limitation, we propose MM-STFlowNet, a comprehensive multi-mode prediction framework grounded in dynamic spatial-temporal graph modeling. Initially, an integrated temporal feature processing strategy is implemented using signal decomposition and convolution techniques to address data spikes and high volatility. Subsequently, we introduce the Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (STDGCRN) to capture detailed spatial-temporal dependencies across multiple traffic modes, enhanced by an adaptive channel attention mechanism. Finally, the self-attention mechanism is applied to incorporate various external factors, further enhancing prediction accuracy. Experiments on a real-world dataset from Guangzhounan Railway Station in China demonstrate that MM-STFlowNet achieves state-of-the-art performance, particularly during peak periods, providing valuable insight for transportation hub management.

客流预测时空图交通枢纽动态建模

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