arXiv:2504.06364stat.MLcs.LG2025-04被引 3

用深度模型提升时空事件预测,兼顾解释性与表达能力。

Deep spatio-temporal point processes: Advances and new directions

  • 用神经网络学习灵活的影响力核函数,替代传统参数化核。
  • 在犯罪、地震余震和败血症预测中表现优于经典模型。
  • 适合需要可解释性又需捕捉复杂动态的研究者使用。

时空点过程(STPPs)用于建模时间和空间上离散事件的分布,在犯罪学、地震学、流行病学及社交网络等领域有重要应用。传统模型依赖参数化核函数,难以捕捉异质性与非平稳动态。近年来,通过将深度神经网络融入条件强度函数建模或学习数据驱动的灵活影响核,显著提升了模型表达能力。本文综述深度影响核方法的发展,该方法兼具统计可解释性(因核函数仍保留在模型中以捕捉事件影响的时空传播)与强大表达力,融合双重优势。文章详解其核心组件:利用函数基分解与图神经网络编码复杂空间或网络结构;采用基于似然与无似然的方法进行估计;并解决大规模数据下的计算可扩展性问题。同时讨论了核函数可识别性的理论基础。模拟与真实数据实验展示了在犯罪分析、地震余震预测及败血症建模中的应用效果,并展望未来发展方向。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Spatio-temporal point processes (STPPs) model discrete events distributed in time and space, with important applications in areas such as criminology, seismology, epidemiology, and social networks. Traditional models often rely on parametric kernels, limiting their ability to capture heterogeneous, nonstationary dynamics. Recent innovations integrate deep neural architectures -- either by modeling the conditional intensity function directly or by learning flexible, data-driven influence kernels, substantially broadening their expressive power. This article reviews the development of the deep influence kernel approach, which enjoys statistical explainability, since the influence kernel remains in the model to capture the spatiotemporal propagation of event influence and its impact on future events, while also possessing strong expressive power, thereby benefiting from both worlds. We explain the main components in developing deep kernel point processes, leveraging tools such as functional basis decomposition and graph neural networks to encode complex spatial or network structures, as well as estimation using both likelihood-based and likelihood-free methods, and address computational scalability for large-scale data. We also discuss the theoretical foundation of kernel identifiability. Simulated and real-data examples highlight applications to crime analysis, earthquake aftershock prediction, and sepsis prediction modeling, and we conclude by discussing promising directions for the field.

时空建模深度学习点过程可解释性

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