arXiv:2504.06915cs.LGcs.AI2025-04中稿 · Symposium on Intel…被引 2

提出新方法量化遥感时间序列缺失数据的不确定性,提升回归预测可靠性。

An Analysis of Temporal Dropout in Earth Observation Time Series for Regression Tasks

  • 推理时随机丢弃时间步,模拟缺失数据以捕捉输入不确定性
  • 自适应学习最优丢弃率,性能优于人工调参的固定比率方法
  • 在3个遥感数据集上验证,显著改善预测精度与不确定性校准

时间序列数据中的缺失观测对深度学习模型构成重大挑战,尤其在回归任务中。在地球观测领域,卫星故障或云层遮挡常导致时间步缺失,引发预测输出不确定性并降低模型性能。尽管已有研究通过数据增强提升鲁棒性,但输入层面的不确定性常被忽视。为此,本文提出蒙特卡洛时间丢弃(MC-TD),在推理阶段以预设丢弃率随机剔除时间步,模拟缺失效应。进一步提出蒙特卡洛连续时间丢弃(MC-ConcTD),通过可学习的丢弃分布自动优化丢弃策略,避免昂贵的超参数搜索。两种方法均利用蒙特卡洛采样进行不确定性量化。在三个地球观测时间序列数据集上的实验表明,MC-ConcTD在预测性能和不确定性校准方面优于现有方法。结果还显示,自适应丢弃调优相比手动选择更具优势,使不确定性量化更稳健且适用于实际遥感应用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Missing instances in time series data impose a significant challenge to deep learning models, particularly in regression tasks. In the Earth Observation field, satellite failure or cloud occlusion frequently results in missing time-steps, introducing uncertainties in the predicted output and causing a decline in predictive performance. While many studies address missing time-steps through data augmentation to improve model robustness, the uncertainty arising at the input level is commonly overlooked. To address this gap, we introduce Monte Carlo Temporal Dropout (MC-TD), a method that explicitly accounts for input-level uncertainty by randomly dropping time-steps during inference using a predefined dropout ratio, thereby simulating the effect of missing data. To bypass the need for costly searches for the optimal dropout ratio, we extend this approach with Monte Carlo Concrete Temporal Dropout (MC-ConcTD), a method that learns the optimal dropout distribution directly. Both MC-TD and MC-ConcTD are applied during inference, leveraging Monte Carlo sampling for uncertainty quantification. Experiments on three EO time-series datasets demonstrate that MC-ConcTD improves predictive performance and uncertainty calibration compared to existing approaches. Additionally, we highlight the advantages of adaptive dropout tuning over manual selection, making uncertainty quantification more robust and accessible for EO applications.

遥感时间序列不确定性深度学习

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