arXiv:2504.07235astro-ph.EPastro-ph.IM2025-04被引 2

用机器学习预测恒星是否可能拥有类地行星,提高搜寻效率。

Earth-like planet predictor: A machine learning approach

  • 基于伯尔模型生成的合成系统训练随机森林分类器
  • 模型预测准确率达99%,44个真实系统被识别为高概率候选
  • 适用于未来系外行星探测任务,尤其适合资源有限的观测计划

寻找在质量和平衡温度上与地球相似的系外行星,是探测太阳系外宜居环境乃至生命的关键第一步。未来如PLATO或LIFE等任务将聚焦于探测这类小型、低温行星,需投入大量观测时间。本文旨在预测哪些恒星最可能拥有类地行星(ELP),以避免盲目搜寻,减少探测时间并最大化发现数量。基于前期关于类地行星存在性与系统属性相关性的研究,我们利用随机森林模型对系统是否“包含类地行星”进行分类。模型在伯尔模型生成的合成系统上训练与测试,并应用于真实观测系统。测试结果显示,模型精度最高达0.99,意味着99%被标记为含类地行星的系统确实至少拥有一颗。在已测试的44个真实系统中,有44个被判定为高概率含类地行星,其稳定性分析也表明此类行星的存在不会破坏系统稳定。该模型在伯尔模型生成系统中表现出色,能有效识别含或不含类地行星系统的典型结构。若假设伯尔模型能合理描述真实系统架构,则此工具在类地行星搜寻中极具价值。类似方法亦可推广至其他行星形成模型以验证其预测。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Searching for planets analogous to Earth in terms of mass and equilibrium temperature is currently the first step in the quest for habitable conditions outside our Solar System and, ultimately, the search for life in the universe. Future missions such as PLATO or LIFE will begin to detect and characterise these small, cold planets, dedicating significant observation time to them. The aim of this work is to predict which stars are most likely to host an Earth-like planet (ELP) to avoid blind searches, minimises detection times, and thus maximises the number of detections. Using a previous study on correlations between the presence of an ELP and the properties of its system, we trained a Random Forest to recognise and classify systems as 'hosting an ELP' or 'not hosting an ELP'. The Random Forest was trained and tested on populations of synthetic planetary systems derived from the Bern model, and then applied to real observed systems. The tests conducted on the machine learning (ML) model yield precision scores of up to 0.99, indicating that 99% of the systems identified by the model as having ELPs possess at least one. Among the few real observed systems that have been tested, 44 have been selected as having a high probability of hosting an ELP, and a quick study of the stability of these systems confirms that the presence of an Earth-like planet within them would leave them stable. The excellent results obtained from the tests conducted on the ML model demonstrate its ability to recognise the typical architectures of systems with or without ELPs within populations derived from the Bern model. If we assume that the Bern model adequately describes the architecture of real systems, then such a tool can prove indispensable in the search for Earth-like planets. A similar approach could be applied to other planetary system formation models to validate those predictions.

类地行星机器学习系外行星随机森林

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。