用深度学习融合气候遥相关信号,提升欧洲冬季天气预报准确率。
Deep Learning Meets Teleconnections: Improving S2S Predictions for European Winter Weather
- 用LSTM、Index-LSTM和ViT-LSTM模型捕捉遥相关影响
- ViT-LSTM在第5周后优于欧洲中期天气预报中心的预报
- 揭示了极地涡旋与季风振荡对阻塞高压的预测机制
亚季节到季节(S2S)尺度的天气预测(2周至2个月)对早期预警至关重要,但受气候系统混沌性限制。气候遥相关如平流层极地涡旋(SPV)和莫恩德-朱利安振荡(MJO)提供可预报性窗口,但其复杂相互作用尚未被有效利用。本文构建并评估了三种深度学习模型:基于历史天气型的LSTM、融合SPV与MJO指数的Index-LSTM,以及直接编码平流层风场与热带辐射场的ViT-LSTM。模型对比了业务模式及其它AI模型。结果表明,引入遥相关信息可提升长时效预报技能。尤其,ViT-LSTM在第5周后超越ECMWF子季节再分析预报,显著改进斯堪的纳维亚阻塞(SB)和大西洋脊(AR)预测。高置信度预测分析显示,北大西洋涛动(NAO)、SB与AR的预报机会与SPV变化及MJO相位模式相关,且发现新路径。研究证明,编码物理意义气候场可提升S2S预测性能,推动人工智能驱动的亚季节预报发展。同时,实验凸显深度学习作为探究大气动力学与可预报性的工具潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Predictions on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales--ranging from two weeks to two month--are crucial for early warning systems but remain challenging owing to chaos in the climate system. Teleconnections, such as the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), offer windows of enhanced predictability, however, their complex interactions remain underutilized in operational forecasting. Here, we developed and evaluated deep learning architectures to predict North Atlantic-European (NAE) weather regimes, systematically assessing the role of remote drivers in improving S2S forecast skill of deep learning models. We implemented (1) a Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) network predicting the NAE regimes of the next six weeks based on previous regimes, (2) an Index-LSTM incorporating SPV and MJO indices, and (3) a ViT-LSTM using a Vision Transformer to directly encode stratospheric wind and tropical outgoing longwave radiation fields. These models are compared with operational hindcasts as well as other AI models. Our results show that leveraging teleconnection information enhances skill at longer lead times. Notably, the ViT-LSTM outperforms ECMWF's subseasonal hindcasts beyond week 4 by improving Scandinavian Blocking (SB) and Atlantic Ridge (AR) predictions. Analysis of high-confidence predictions reveals that NAO-, SB, and AR opportunity forecasts can be associated with SPV variability and MJO phase patterns aligning with established pathways, also indicating new patterns. Overall, our work demonstrates that encoding physically meaningful climate fields can enhance S2S prediction skill, advancing AI-driven subseasonal forecast. Moreover, the experiments highlight the potential of deep learning methods as investigative tools, providing new insights into atmospheric dynamics and predictability.
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