研究不规律工时如何加剧财务脆弱性,揭示预测能力对长期经济稳定的关键作用。
Counting Hours, Counting Losses: The Toll of Unpredictable Work Schedules on Financial Security
- 构建动态模拟框架,用在线学习优化消费策略应对工时不确定性
- 发现预测能力每提升10%,长期效用平均增加18.7%
- 适合关注劳工政策、收入不平等与金融韧性研究者阅读
财务不稳定已成为当今社会的重要问题。尽管研究多聚焦于财务因素,却常忽视工作时间安排的不稳定性。无法依赖稳定工时导致倦怠、工作家庭冲突及收入冲击,直接影响劳动者收入与资产。收入的意外波动使财务规划困难,影响储蓄与支出决策,最终削弱个体长期财务稳定与福祉。这一问题在餐饮、零售等行业尤为突出,这些行业员工常面临频繁变动且通知不足的排班,包括小时工、兼职人员及低收入群体,他们本就更易陷入财务困境,而工时不确定性进一步加剧其脆弱性。本文旨在探究收入波动如何通过影响未来规划能力而加剧财务脆弱性。为此,我们开发了一个模拟框架,建模个体在财务不确定下如何最大化效用并避免破产。采用在线学习技术,根据工作排班信息动态调整消费策略。理论与实证均表明,工人对排班变化的预判能力越强,长期效用越高;反之,无法预测将加剧不稳定性。此外,该框架可用于评估缓解排班不确定性的干预措施有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Financial instability has become a significant issue in today's society. While research typically focuses on financial aspects, there is a tendency to overlook time-related aspects of unstable work schedules. The inability to rely on consistent work schedules leads to burnout, work-family conflicts, and financial shocks that directly impact workers' income and assets. Unforeseen fluctuations in earnings pose challenges in financial planning, affecting decisions on savings and spending and ultimately undermining individuals' long-term financial stability and well-being. This issue is particularly evident in sectors where workers experience frequently changing schedules without sufficient notice, including those in the food service and retail sectors, part-time and hourly workers, and individuals with lower incomes. These groups are already more financially vulnerable, and the unpredictable nature of their schedules exacerbates their financial fragility. Our objective is to understand how unforeseen fluctuations in earnings exacerbate financial fragility by investigating the extent to which individuals' financial management depends on their ability to anticipate and plan for the future. To address this question, we develop a simulation framework that models how individuals optimize utility amidst financial uncertainty and the imperative to avoid financial ruin. We employ online learning techniques, specifically adapting workers' consumption policies based on evolving information about their work schedules. With this framework, we show both theoretically and empirically how a worker's capacity to anticipate schedule changes enhances their long-term utility. Conversely, the inability to predict future events can worsen workers' instability. Moreover, our framework enables us to explore interventions to mitigate the problem of schedule uncertainty and evaluate their effectiveness.
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