探究大模型中文本对时序预测的作用与可解释性

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been applied to time series forecasting tasks, leveraging pre-trained language models as the backbone and incorporating textual data to purportedly enhance the comprehensive capabilities of LLMs for time series. However, are these texts really helpful for interpretation? This study seeks to investigate the actual efficacy and interpretability of such textual incorporations. Through a series of empirical experiments on textual prompts and textual prototypes, our findings reveal that the misalignment between two modalities exists, and the textual information does not significantly improve time series forecasting performance in many cases. Furthermore, visualization analysis indicates that the textual representations learned by existing frameworks lack sufficient interpretability when applied to time series data. We further propose a novel metric named Semantic Matching Index (SMI) to better evaluate the matching degree between time series and texts during our post hoc interpretability investigation. Our analysis reveals the misalignment and limited interpretability of texts in current time-series LLMs, and we hope this study can raise awareness of the interpretability of texts for time series. The code is available at https://github.com/zachysun/TS-Lang-Exp.