针对稀疏数据的设备寿命预测,提出无需插值的新方法
Rethinking Remaining Useful Life Prediction with Scarce Time Series Data: Regression under Indirect Supervision
- 用单点数据输入替代序列输入,避免插值引入偏差
- 通过参数修正机制建模时间依赖,提升稀缺数据下的预测精度
- 适合传感器数据稀疏的工业故障预警场景
监督时序预测依赖直接测量的目标变量,但实际应用如剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测属于间接监督,目标变量是另一相关变量的函数。主流时序回归方法依赖连续输入捕捉时间模式,但在稀疏不规则采样数据下需插值,易引入显著偏差。本文针对数据稀缺下的RUL预测问题,提出统一框架——参数化静态回归,以单个数据点为输入进行回归,天然避免插值需求。时间依赖性通过参数修正(PR)过程建模,推理时使用历史后验估计近似参数函数,遵循训练时标签生成的分布。此外,提出新型批训练技术,防止间接监督任务中的过拟合并提升效率。在模拟数据稀缺的公开基准上评估,本方法在高度稀疏时序数据下表现出竞争力的预测准确率。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Supervised time series prediction relies on directly measured target variables, but real-world use cases such as predicting remaining useful life (RUL) involve indirect supervision, where the target variable is labeled as a function of another dependent variable. Trending temporal regression techniques rely on sequential time series inputs to capture temporal patterns, requiring interpolation when dealing with sparsely and irregularly sampled covariates along the timeline. However, interpolation can introduce significant biases, particularly with highly scarce data. In this paper, we address the RUL prediction problem with data scarcity as time series regression under indirect supervision. We introduce a unified framework called parameterized static regression, which takes single data points as inputs for regression of target values, inherently handling data scarcity without requiring interpolation. The time dependency under indirect supervision is captured via a parametrical rectification (PR) process, approximating a parametric function during inference with historical posteriori estimates, following the same underlying distribution used for labeling during training. Additionally, we propose a novel batch training technique for tasks in indirect supervision to prevent overfitting and enhance efficiency. We evaluate our model on public benchmarks for RUL prediction with simulated data scarcity. Our method demonstrates competitive performance in prediction accuracy when dealing with highly scarce time series data.
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