用机器学习实现千米级区域天气预报,计算成本低且精度高。
Building Machine Learning Limited Area Models: Kilometer-Scale Weather Forecasting in Realistic Settings
- 通过灵活边界强迫方法,支持从再分析或业务预报数据获取边界条件。
- 在丹麦和瑞士两地测试,瑞士模型在关键地表变量上超过传统数值预报。
- 采用矩形与三角网格结构及多步滚动训练,提升时间一致性与建模效率。
机器学习正在革新全球天气预报,但高分辨率区域预报同样具有重要价值。现有尝试未考虑真实预报场景,也未系统评估设计选择。本文提出一个构建千米级机器学习区域模型的框架,通过灵活边界强迫方法引入再分析或业务预报数据作为边界条件。模型采用矩形与三角网格结构,并结合多步滚动训练策略以增强时间一致性。在丹麦和瑞士两个地形特征不同的区域进行系统评估,验证数据包括格点分析与站点观测,包含2020年2月风暴Ciara的案例研究。两模型在多种变量上均表现优异,瑞士模型在关键地表变量上超越数值天气预报基准。其显著更低的计算成本彰显了机器学习区域模型在未来区域预报中的巨大潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Machine learning is revolutionizing global weather forecasting, with models that efficiently produce highly accurate forecasts. Apart from global forecasting there is also a large value in high-resolution regional weather forecasts, focusing on accurate simulations of the atmosphere for a limited area. Initial attempts have been made to use machine learning for such limited area scenarios, but these experiments do not consider realistic forecasting settings and do not investigate the many design choices involved. We present a framework for building kilometer-scale machine learning limited area models with boundary conditions imposed through a flexible boundary forcing method. This enables boundary conditions defined either from reanalysis or operational forecast data. Our approach employs specialized graph constructions with rectangular and triangular meshes, along with multi-step rollout training strategies to improve temporal consistency. We perform systematic evaluation of different design choices, including the boundary width, graph construction and boundary forcing integration. Models are evaluated across both a Danish and a Swiss domain, two regions that exhibit different orographical characteristics. Verification is performed against both gridded analysis data and in-situ observations, including a case study for the storm Ciara in February 2020. Both models achieve skillful predictions across a wide range of variables, with our Swiss model outperforming the numerical weather prediction baseline for key surface variables. With their substantially lower computational cost, our findings demonstrate great potential for machine learning limited area models in the future of regional weather forecasting.
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