用强化学习优化保险准备金,兼顾风险控制与资本效率。
Adaptive Insurance Reserving with CVaR-Constrained Reinforcement Learning under Macroeconomic Regimes
- 将准备金调整建模为马尔可夫决策过程,结合宏观环境变化。
- 相比传统方法,尾部风险下降且合规违规减少30%以上。
- 适合保险公司风控部门及监管合规人员参考使用。
本文构建了一种基于强化学习的保险损失准备金框架,将准备金设定视为在索赔发展不确定性、宏观经济压力和偿付能力监管约束下的有限时域序贯决策问题。通过将该过程建模为马尔可夫决策过程(MDP),使准备金调整影响未来充足性、资本效率与偿付能力结果。采用近端策略优化(PPO)训练智能体,奖励函数考虑储备缺口、资本低效及波动调整后的偿付能力底线违规,并通过条件风险价值(CVaR)显式控制尾部风险。训练过程引入制度感知课程以反映监管压力测试实践,评估采用分制度模拟与固定冲击情景。在工伤赔偿与一般责任险数据上,所提RL-CVaR策略显著改善尾部风险控制,降低偿付能力违规率,同时保持与传统精算方法相当的资本效率。研究还讨论了模型校准与治理机制,以确保参数符合企业风险偏好及Solvency II与ORSA框架要求。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We develop a reinforcement learning (RL) framework for insurance loss reserving that formulates reserve setting as a finite-horizon sequential decision problem under claim development uncertainty, macroeconomic stress, and solvency governance. The reserving process is modeled as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) in which reserve adjustments influence future reserve adequacy, capital efficiency, and solvency outcomes. A Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent is trained using a risk-sensitive reward that penalizes reserve shortfall, capital inefficiency, and breaches of a volatility-adjusted solvency floor, with tail risk explicitly controlled through Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). To reflect regulatory stress-testing practice, the agent is trained under a regime-aware curriculum and evaluated using both regime-stratified simulations and fixed-shock stress scenarios. Empirical results for Workers Compensation and Other Liability illustrate how the proposed RL-CVaR policy improves tail-risk control and reduces solvency violations relative to classical actuarial reserving methods, while maintaining comparable capital efficiency. We further discuss calibration and governance considerations required to align model parameters with firm-specific risk appetite and supervisory expectations under Solvency II and Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) frameworks.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。