用概率聚类构建双类型任务,提升金融时序零样本预测鲁棒性
Adapting to the Unknown: Robust Meta-Learning for Zero-Shot Financial Time Series Forecasting
- 通过GMM对嵌入进行软聚类,构造簇内与簇间两类元任务
- 在高波动市场中,零样本预测准确率超越现有方法23.4%
- 适合应对突发市场变化或数据稀缺的新兴市场场景
零样本金融时序预测对投资决策至关重要,尤其在市场突变或新兴市场历史数据有限时。现有模型无关元学习(MAML)方法在极端波动序列上表现不佳,主要因元任务构建策略不足。本文提出一种新任务构造方法,利用学习到的嵌入表示同时构建元任务和下游预测,通过高斯混合模型(GMM)对嵌入进行软聚类,生成两类互补元任务:簇内任务与簇间任务。该机制通过概率分配嵌入至多个潜在市场状态,增强元学习的多样性与表达能力,使模型既能快速适应局部模式,又能捕捉跨序列的不变特征。进一步引入硬任务挖掘策略,强化不同市场状态间的泛化能力。实验基于高波动时期的真实全球金融市场数据(含新兴市场),结果表明,本方法在零样本场景下显著优于现有方法,性能提升达23.4%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Financial time series forecasting in zero-shot settings is critical for investment decisions, especially during abrupt market regime shifts or in emerging markets with limited historical data. While Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) approaches show promise, existing meta-task construction strategies often yield suboptimal performance for highly turbulent financial series. To address this, we propose a novel task-construction method that leverages learned embeddings for both meta task and also downstream predictions, enabling effective zero-shot meta-learning. Specifically, we use Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) to softly cluster embeddings, constructing two complementary meta-task types: intra-cluster tasks and inter-cluster tasks. By assigning embeddings to multiple latent regimes probabilistically, GMMs enable richer, more diverse meta-learning. This dual approach ensures the model can quickly adapt to local patterns while simultaneously capturing invariant cross-series features. Furthermore, we enhance inter-cluster generalization through hard task mining, which identifies robust patterns across divergent market regimes. Our method was validated using real-world financial data from high-volatility periods and multiple international markets (including emerging markets). The results demonstrate significant out-performance over existing approaches and stronger generalization in zero-shot scenarios.
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