用反事实模拟优化糖尿病行为干预,降低高血糖风险。
GlyTwin: Digital Twin for Glucose Control in Type 1 Diabetes Through Optimal Behavioral Modifications Using Patient-Centric Counterfactuals
- 基于反事实推理生成个性化饮食与胰岛素调整方案
- 在真实数据上实现87.3%的高血糖预防率,85.8%解释有效性
- 兼顾患者偏好,适合临床辅助决策与智能管理
长期高血糖会增加神经病变、肾病和心血管疾病等慢性并发症风险。现有持续皮下胰岛素输注(CSII)和连续血糖监测(CGM)技术仅能预测低血糖或注射少量胰岛素,而当前数字孪生方法也主要聚焦于血糖对行为和治疗的响应预测。因此,这些技术难以提供可指导主动行为干预的替代治疗方案。为此,我们提出GlyTwin,一种新型计算框架,通过整合以患者为中心的反事实解释,增强数字孪生技术,模拟最优行为治疗以实现血糖控制。GlyTwin通过推荐调整碳水摄入和胰岛素剂量等行为选择,显著减少高血糖事件的发生频率与持续时间。同时,该框架将利益相关者偏好纳入干预生成过程,确保方案个性化与用户友好性。我们在新构建的AZT1D数据集上评估GlyTwin,该数据集包含50名使用自动胰岛素输送(AID)系统的1型糖尿病(T1D)患者,每人监测26天。结果表明,相较于现有最先进方法,GlyTwin在生成反事实解释方面表现更优,有效解释率达85.8%,高血糖预防效果达87.3%(对比历史数据)。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Frequent and long-term exposure to hyperglycemia increases the risk of chronic complications, including neuropathy, nephropathy, and cardiovascular disease. Existing continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) technologies model only specific aspects of glycemic regulation, such as predicting hypoglycemia and administering small insulin boluses. Similarly, current digital twin approaches in diabetes management primarily focus on predicting glucose responses to human behavior and insulin therapy. As a result, these technologies lack the ability to provide alternative treatment scenarios that could guide proactive behavioral interventions for optimal diabetes management. To address this gap, we propose GlyTwin, a novel computational framework that enhances digital twin technologies by integrating counterfactual explanations to simulate optimal behavioral treatments for glucose control. GlyTwin generates counterfactual treatments by recommending adjustments to behavioral choices, such as carbohydrate intake and insulin dosing, to significantly reduce the occurrence and duration of hyperglycemic events. In addition, GlyTwin incorporates stakeholder preferences into its intervention-generation process, ensuring that the tool is personalized and user-centric. We evaluate GlyTwin on AZT1D, a new dataset constructed by collecting longitudinal data from 50 individuals living with type 1 diabetes (T1D) on automated insulin delivery (AID) systems, each monitored for 26 days. Results show that GlyTwin outperforms state-of-the-art methods for generating counterfactual explanations, with 85.8\% valid explanations and 87.3\% effectiveness in preventing hyperglycemia compared with historical data.
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