用强化学习帮城市规划者选能提升幸福感的气候适应方案
Using Reinforcement Learning to Integrate Subjective Wellbeing into Climate Adaptation Decision Making
- 用强化学习整合降雨预测、洪水模拟等四模块,动态优化政策
- 在哥本哈根案例中,识别出可长期维持居民幸福感的空间干预策略
- 适合关注气候韧性与民生福祉的城市决策者参考
主观幸福感是人类生活的重要维度,影响预期寿命和经济生产力。出行对维持幸福感至关重要,但气候变化导致洪涝频发且强度加剧,将严重干扰人们到达活动场所和目的地的能力,进而影响整体幸福感。气候适应政策制定面临复杂挑战:决策者需从众多选项中选择并实施政策,而这些政策效果各异,同时受限于资源约束和不确定的气候预测。本文提出一种多模块框架,以强化学习为工具,支持丹麦哥本哈根的气候适应决策。该框架集成四个相互关联的组件:长期降雨预测、洪水建模、交通可达性分析和幸福感建模。通过此方法,决策者可识别出在时间和空间上有助于持续或提升主观幸福感的干预措施。将气候适应视为开放系统,该框架提供结构化路径,用于探索和评估不同适应政策路线。从而支持决策者做出长期最大化幸福感的明智选择。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Subjective wellbeing is a fundamental aspect of human life, influencing life expectancy and economic productivity, among others. Mobility plays a critical role in maintaining wellbeing, yet the increasing frequency and intensity of both nuisance and high-impact floods due to climate change are expected to significantly disrupt access to activities and destinations, thereby affecting overall wellbeing. Addressing climate adaptation presents a complex challenge for policymakers, who must select and implement policies from a broad set of options with varying effects while managing resource constraints and uncertain climate projections. In this work, we propose a multi-modular framework that uses reinforcement learning as a decision-support tool for climate adaptation in Copenhagen, Denmark. Our framework integrates four interconnected components: long-term rainfall projections, flood modeling, transport accessibility, and wellbeing modeling. This approach enables decision-makers to identify spatial and temporal policy interventions that help sustain or enhance subjective wellbeing over time. By modeling climate adaptation as an open-ended system, our framework provides a structured framework for exploring and evaluating adaptation policy pathways. In doing so, it supports policymakers to make informed decisions that maximize wellbeing in the long run.
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