无需额外变量,通过时间结构估计时序因果效应。
Using Time Structure to Estimate Causal Effects
- 基于SVAR模型,利用协方差和参数构建线性方程组求解因果效应。
- 在全时间图满足充分条件时,可唯一识别直接因果效应。
- 适用于无辅助观测变量的时序数据,适合因果推断研究者。
当存在潜在混杂因素时,现有时序因果效应估计方法通常依赖额外的可观测变量或时间序列(如工具变量、负控制变量,或满足前后门准则的时间序列)。本文提出一种新方法,可在不依赖额外辅助变量的情况下,估计时序数据中的直接(及通过Wright路径规则计算的总)因果效应。该方法假设时序数据服从结构向量自回归(SVAR)过程,通过求解由不同协方差与模型参数构成的线性方程组来实现。文中给出了在所谓全时间图下方程组可唯一求解的充分图论条件,并证明其解包含待识别的直接因果效应。同时,还提出了基于滞后的充分条件,使得前述图条件成立,从而保证直接因果效应可识别。多个数值实验验证了方法的正确性与适用性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
There exist several approaches for estimating causal effects in time series when latent confounding is present. Many of these approaches rely on additional auxiliary observed variables or time series such as instruments, negative controls or time series that satisfy the front- or backdoor criterion in certain graphs. In this paper, we present a novel approach for estimating direct (and via Wright's path rule total) causal effects in a time series setup which does not rely on additional auxiliary observed variables or time series. This approach assumes that the underlying time series is a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) process and estimates direct causal effects by solving certain linear equation systems made up of different covariances and model parameters. We state sufficient graphical criteria in terms of the so-called full time graph under which these linear equations systems are uniquely solvable and under which their solutions contain the to-be-identified direct causal effects as components. We also state sufficient lag-based criteria under which the previously mentioned graphical conditions are satisfied and, thus, under which direct causal effects are identifiable. Several numerical experiments underline the correctness and applicability of our results.
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