融合规则与数值特征,提升医疗事件预测的可解释性与精度
Interpretable Hybrid-Rule Temporal Point Processes
- 用规则+数值特征联合建模事件发生强度
- 在真实医疗数据上预测准确率优于现有方法
- 提取的规则可解释疾病进展,适合临床研究使用
时间点过程(TPPs)广泛应用于疾病发作预测、进展分析和临床决策支持等医疗领域。尽管TPPs能有效捕捉时间动态,但其可解释性差仍是关键挑战。现有可解释TPPs无法融入数值特征,限制了预测精度。为此,我们提出混合规则时间点过程(HRTPP),将时序逻辑规则与数值特征结合,同时提升可解释性与预测性能。HRTPP包含三部分:基础强度(内在事件概率)、规则强度(结构化时序依赖)和数值特征强度(动态概率调节)。为高效发现有效规则,引入两阶段规则挖掘策略,结合贝叶斯优化。通过多标准评估框架(规则有效性、模型拟合度、时间预测精度)验证方法。在真实医疗数据集上的实验表明,HRTPP在预测性能与临床可解释性上均优于当前最先进可解释TPPs。案例研究显示,提取的规则能合理解释疾病进展,对临床诊断具有重要价值。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are widely used for modeling event sequences in various medical domains, such as disease onset prediction, progression analysis, and clinical decision support. Although TPPs effectively capture temporal dynamics, their lack of interpretability remains a critical challenge. Recent advancements have introduced interpretable TPPs. However, these methods fail to incorporate numerical features, thereby limiting their ability to generate precise predictions. To address this issue, we propose Hybrid-Rule Temporal Point Processes (HRTPP), a novel framework that integrates temporal logic rules with numerical features, improving both interpretability and predictive accuracy in event modeling. HRTPP comprises three key components: basic intensity for intrinsic event likelihood, rule-based intensity for structured temporal dependencies, and numerical feature intensity for dynamic probability modulation. To effectively discover valid rules, we introduce a two-phase rule mining strategy with Bayesian optimization. To evaluate our method, we establish a multi-criteria assessment framework, incorporating rule validity, model fitting, and temporal predictive accuracy. Experimental results on real-world medical datasets demonstrate that HRTPP outperforms state-of-the-art interpretable TPPs in terms of predictive performance and clinical interpretability. In case studies, the rules extracted by HRTPP explain the disease progression, offering valuable contributions to medical diagnosis.
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