用大模型推理+规则提炼,让投资决策既准又透明。
Reasoning-Based AI for Startup Evaluation (R.A.I.S.E.): A Memory-Augmented, Multi-Step Decision Framework
- 用链式思考生成推理日志,再转为可读规则。
- 准确率从46%升至70%,精度提升50%以上。
- 适合需要透明决策的投资机构和政策制定者。
我们提出一种新框架,融合决策树的可解释性与大语言模型(LLM)的高级推理能力,用于预测初创企业成功概率。该方法利用链式思考提示生成详细推理日志,并将其提炼为结构化、人类可理解的逻辑规则。整个流程集成高效数据接入、两阶段优化、集成候选采样、模拟强化学习评分及持久记忆机制,确保决策稳定且输出透明。在精选的初创企业数据集上实验表明,相比独立使用OpenAI o3模型,本方法将精度从0.225提升至0.346(提高54%),准确率从0.46提升至0.70(提高50%)。显著优于随机分类器(精度16%),实现超2倍提升。通过结合先进AI推理与显式规则解释,该方法不仅增强传统决策流程,还支持专家干预与持续策略优化。本工作为高风险投资场景中可解释的LLM驱动决策系统奠定了基础,适用于需透明数据洞察的各类领域。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We present a novel framework that bridges the gap between the interpretability of decision trees and the advanced reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to predict startup success. Our approach leverages chain-of-thought prompting to generate detailed reasoning logs, which are subsequently distilled into structured, human-understandable logical rules. The pipeline integrates multiple enhancements - efficient data ingestion, a two-step refinement process, ensemble candidate sampling, simulated reinforcement learning scoring, and persistent memory - to ensure both stable decision-making and transparent output. Experimental evaluations on curated startup datasets demonstrate that our combined pipeline improves precision by 54% from 0.225 to 0.346 and accuracy by 50% from 0.46 to 0.70 compared to a standalone OpenAI o3 model. Notably, our model achieves over 2x the precision of a random classifier (16%). By combining state-of-the-art AI reasoning with explicit rule-based explanations, our method not only augments traditional decision-making processes but also facilitates expert intervention and continuous policy refinement. This work lays the foundation for the implementation of interpretable LLM-powered decision frameworks in high-stakes investment environments and other domains that require transparent and data-driven insights.
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