arXiv:2504.13111cs.LGcs.RO2025-04中稿 · Robotics: Science …被引 7

用规则引导的不确定性建模,提升轨迹预测在复杂场景下的可靠性。

Uncertainty-Aware Trajectory Prediction via Rule-Regularized Heteroscedastic Deep Classification

  • 将轨迹预测转为分类任务,结合谱归一化高斯过程分离认知与随机不确定性
  • 在nuScenes数据集上,低数据和跨区域场景下误差降低18.7%,校准度显著提升
  • 自动从驾驶规则文本生成先验知识,适合自动驾驶中需可信预测的场景

基于深度学习的轨迹预测模型虽能捕捉复杂交互,但在分布外泛化方面仍面临挑战,尤其受数据不平衡及多样性不足影响。为此,我们提出SHIFT(Spectral Heteroscedastic Informed Forecasting for Trajectories),一种将校准不确定性建模与基于自动规则提取的先验信息相结合的新框架。SHIFT将轨迹预测重构为分类任务,采用谱归一化的异方差高斯过程,有效分离认知不确定性和随机不确定性。通过大语言模型驱动的检索增强生成框架,从自然语言驾驶规则(如停车规则、可行驶性约束)中自动生成训练标签作为先验。在nuScenes数据集上的大量实验表明,包括低数据和跨区域场景在内的挑战性设置下,SHIFT优于现有最优方法,在不确定性校准和位移指标上均取得显著提升。尤其在交叉路口等固有不确定性较高的复杂场景中表现突出。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Deep learning-based trajectory prediction models have demonstrated promising capabilities in capturing complex interactions. However, their out-of-distribution generalization remains a significant challenge, particularly due to unbalanced data and a lack of enough data and diversity to ensure robustness and calibration. To address this, we propose SHIFT (Spectral Heteroscedastic Informed Forecasting for Trajectories), a novel framework that uniquely combines well-calibrated uncertainty modeling with informative priors derived through automated rule extraction. SHIFT reformulates trajectory prediction as a classification task and employs heteroscedastic spectral-normalized Gaussian processes to effectively disentangle epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We learn informative priors from training labels, which are automatically generated from natural language driving rules, such as stop rules and drivability constraints, using a retrieval-augmented generation framework powered by a large language model. Extensive evaluations over the nuScenes dataset, including challenging low-data and cross-location scenarios, demonstrate that SHIFT outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving substantial gains in uncertainty calibration and displacement metrics. In particular, our model excels in complex scenarios, such as intersections, where uncertainty is inherently higher. Project page: https://kumarmanas.github.io/SHIFT/.

轨迹预测不确定性建模自动驾驶

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