用物候数据辅助预测果树耐寒性,无耐寒数据也能精准预测。
Transfer Learning via Auxiliary Labels with Application to Cold-Hardiness Prediction
- 通过物候数据作为辅助标签,迁移已有作物的耐寒数据。
- 在无耐寒数据的新品种上,预测准确率显著提升。
- 适合缺乏耐寒测量条件的果园,可降低冻害损失。
低温会导致果实作物因抗寒性不足而遭受严重冻害,其抗寒性在休眠期中会动态变化。为帮助农民决定何时部署昂贵的防冻措施,已发展出预测抗寒性的模型。然而,由于需要专用设备和专业知识,抗寒性数据仅对部分果树品种可得。相比之下,农民通常长期记录物候数据(如芽萌发日期)。本文提出一种新的迁移学习框架——通过辅助标签迁移(TAL),使农民能利用物候数据提升抗寒性预测精度,即使对其特定作物无抗寒性数据。该框架假设源任务(已有品种)包含主标签(抗寒性)和辅助标签(物候),而目标任务(新品种)仅有辅助标签。目标是通过源任务迁移预测目标任务的主标签。尽管迁移学习研究丰富,但此类设定尚无人探讨。为此,我们基于模型选择与平均,提出多种TAL方法,可结合最新深度多任务模型进行抗寒性预测。在多个葡萄品种的真实抗寒性与物候数据上验证,TAL能有效利用物候数据,在无抗寒数据条件下显著提升预测性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Cold temperatures can cause significant frost damage to fruit crops depending on their resilience, or cold hardiness, which changes throughout the dormancy season. This has led to the development of predictive cold-hardiness models, which help farmers decide when to deploy expensive frost-mitigation measures. Unfortunately, cold-hardiness data for model training is only available for some fruit cultivars due to the need for specialized equipment and expertise. Rather, farmers often do have years of phenological data (e.g. date of budbreak) that they regularly collect for their crops. In this work, we introduce a new transfer-learning framework, Transfer via Auxiliary Labels (TAL), that allows farmers to leverage the phenological data to produce more accurate cold-hardiness predictions, even when no cold-hardiness data is available for their specific crop. The framework assumes a set of source tasks (cultivars) where each has associated primary labels (cold hardiness) and auxiliary labels (phenology). However, the target task (new cultivar) is assumed to only have the auxiliary labels. The goal of TAL is to predict primary labels for the target task via transfer from the source tasks. Surprisingly, despite the vast literature on transfer learning, to our knowledge, the TAL formulation has not been previously addressed. Thus, we propose several new TAL approaches based on model selection and averaging that can leverage recent deep multi-task models for cold-hardiness prediction. Our results on real-world cold-hardiness and phenological data for multiple grape cultivars demonstrate that TAL can leverage the phenological data to improve cold-hardiness predictions in the absence of cold-hardiness data.
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