arXiv:2504.13189cs.CLq-fin.ST2025-04

用语言模型分析印度预算,自动识别受益行业并排序。

BASIR: Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking -- A Dataset for Sector Identification and Performance Prediction Using Language Models

  • 用微调嵌入+语言模型识别预算文本中的81个经济部门
  • 行业分类F1达0.605,排名预测NDCG达0.997
  • 适合金融分析、政策研究者使用,数据开源可复现

政府财政政策,尤其是年度预算,对金融市场有重大影响。然而,实时分析预算对特定行业股票表现的影响在方法上仍具挑战且研究较少。本研究提出一种系统框架,用于识别和排序受印度联合预算公告影响的行业。该框架解决两个核心任务:(1) 将预算文本摘录多标签分类至81个预定义经济部门;(2) 对这些行业的表现进行排名。基于1947至2025年印度联合预算文本的完整语料库,我们构建了BASIR(预算辅助行业影响排序)数据集,将预算文本片段与行业影响进行标注。我们的架构结合微调嵌入进行行业识别,并利用语言模型根据预测表现对行业进行排序。结果表明,行业分类F1得分为0.605,基于预算后表现的排名预测NDCG得分为0.997。该方法使投资者和政策制定者能够通过结构化、数据驱动的洞察量化财政政策影响,弥补人工分析的空白。所发布的标注数据集已按CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0许可开放,以推动计算经济学研究。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Government fiscal policies, particularly annual union budgets, exert significant influence on financial markets. However, real-time analysis of budgetary impacts on sector-specific equity performance remains methodologically challenging and largely unexplored. This study proposes a framework to systematically identify and rank sectors poised to benefit from India's Union Budget announcements. The framework addresses two core tasks: (1) multi-label classification of excerpts from budget transcripts into 81 predefined economic sectors, and (2) performance ranking of these sectors. Leveraging a comprehensive corpus of Indian Union Budget transcripts from 1947 to 2025, we introduce BASIR (Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking), an annotated dataset mapping excerpts from budgetary transcripts to sectoral impacts. Our architecture incorporates fine-tuned embeddings for sector identification, coupled with language models that rank sectors based on their predicted performances. Our results demonstrate 0.605 F1-score in sector classification, and 0.997 NDCG score in predicting ranks of sectors based on post-budget performances. The methodology enables investors and policymakers to quantify fiscal policy impacts through structured, data-driven insights, addressing critical gaps in manual analysis. The annotated dataset has been released under CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0 license to advance computational economics research.

金融分析自然语言处理预算预测行业排序

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