用神经随机微分方程扩展均值场博弈,实现数据驱动的策略学习。
Neural Mean-Field Games: Extending Mean-Field Game Theory with Neural Stochastic Differential Equations
- 将神经网络嵌入随机微分方程,构建可数据驱动的均值场博弈模型。
- 在含噪、可观测性不同的复杂博弈中均实现高效求解,仅需少量观测即可学习数据分布。
- 基于自动微分,避免数值误差,适合真实世界动态建模如疫情传播模拟。
均值场博弈理论通过近似大规模或无限玩家群体的博弈来处理难以建模的问题。虽然这类博弈可通过相关偏微分方程组解析求解,但该方法非模型无关,可能导致解的存在性或唯一性丢失,并引入建模偏差。为减少模型与博弈间的依赖,我们提出神经均值场博弈:将均值场博弈理论与深度学习结合,采用神经随机微分方程的形式。该模型具有数据驱动、轻量化特点,能学习均值场理论难以捕捉的复杂战略互动。此外,模型基于自动微分,比有限差分法更稳健客观。我们在两类不同复杂度、可观测性和噪声水平的均值场博弈中验证了该方法的高效性与灵活性。最后,通过真实世界数据模拟病毒传播,展示了模型从真实数据中学习的能力,能准确刻画疫情爆发演化过程。结果表明,该模型具备良好泛化能力,仅需少量观测即可学习底层数据分布。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Mean-field game theory relies on approximating games that are intractable to model due to a very large to infinite population of players. While these kinds of games can be solved analytically via the associated system of partial derivatives, this approach is not model-free, can lead to the loss of the existence or uniqueness of solutions, and may suffer from modelling bias. To reduce the dependency between the model and the game, we introduce neural mean-field games: a combination of mean-field game theory and deep learning in the form of neural stochastic differential equations. The resulting model is data-driven, lightweight, and can learn extensive strategic interactions that are hard to capture using mean-field theory alone. In addition, the model is based on automatic differentiation, making it more robust and objective than approaches based on finite differences. We highlight the efficiency and flexibility of our approach by solving two mean-field games that vary in their complexity, observability, and the presence of noise. Lastly, we illustrate the model's robustness by simulating viral dynamics based on real-world data. Here, we demonstrate that the model's ability to learn from real-world data helps to accurately model the evolution of an epidemic outbreak. Using these results, we show that the model is flexible, generalizable, and requires few observations to learn the distribution underlying the data.
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