arXiv:2504.13263cs.AI2025-04被引 16

让非专家也能自动完成复杂因果分析。

Causal-Copilot: An Autonomous Causal Analysis Agent

  • 基于大模型构建自主代理,全流程自动化因果分析。
  • 在真实数据上表现优于现有方法,支持表格与时间序列数据。
  • 适合科研、医疗等领域的非专家快速获取可行动洞察。

因果分析在科学发现和可靠决策中具有基础性作用,但因其概念和算法复杂,领域专家难以使用。这一方法与应用之间的断层导致专家无法利用最新的因果学习进展,而因果研究者也缺乏广泛的实际部署来检验和改进方法。为此,我们提出 Causal-Copilot,一个在大语言模型框架下实现专家级因果分析的自主智能体。该系统可自动处理表格与时间序列数据的完整因果分析流程——包括因果发现、因果推断、算法选择、超参数优化、结果解释及可操作洞察生成。通过自然语言交互支持迭代优化,降低非专业人士使用门槛,同时保持方法严谨性。系统集成超过20种前沿因果分析技术,形成良性循环:既拓展了领域专家对先进方法的访问,又产生丰富真实应用场景,推动因果理论发展。实证评估显示,Causal-Copilot性能显著优于现有基线,提供了一种可靠、可扩展且可扩展的解决方案,弥合了因果分析的理论深度与实际应用之间的鸿沟。Causal-Copilot 的实时交互演示可在 https://causalcopilot.com/ 查看。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Causal analysis plays a foundational role in scientific discovery and reliable decision-making, yet it remains largely inaccessible to domain experts due to its conceptual and algorithmic complexity. This disconnect between causal methodology and practical usability presents a dual challenge: domain experts are unable to leverage recent advances in causal learning, while causal researchers lack broad, real-world deployment to test and refine their methods. To address this, we introduce Causal-Copilot, an autonomous agent that operationalizes expert-level causal analysis within a large language model framework. Causal-Copilot automates the full pipeline of causal analysis for both tabular and time-series data -- including causal discovery, causal inference, algorithm selection, hyperparameter optimization, result interpretation, and generation of actionable insights. It supports interactive refinement through natural language, lowering the barrier for non-specialists while preserving methodological rigor. By integrating over 20 state-of-the-art causal analysis techniques, our system fosters a virtuous cycle -- expanding access to advanced causal methods for domain experts while generating rich, real-world applications that inform and advance causal theory. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Causal-Copilot achieves superior performance compared to existing baselines, offering a reliable, scalable, and extensible solution that bridges the gap between theoretical sophistication and real-world applicability in causal analysis. A live interactive demo of Causal-Copilot is available at https://causalcopilot.com/.

因果分析智能代理大模型

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