AI将复杂化网络攻防平衡，影响冲突形态。
The Impact of AI on the Cyber Offense-Defense Balance and the Character of Cyber Conflict
- 分析44种AI对网络攻防影响的可能路径
- 发现AI既增强又削弱攻防能力，无统一趋势
- 适合关注网络安全战略与政策的读者
与其它冲突领域及高风险人工智能应用领域不同，网络空间本质为数字化，且人工智能训练与实际应用之间存在紧密反馈循环。网络领域可能是受人工智能影响最大、最早的领域之一，因此理解人工智能持续发展下网络空间的演变至关重要。本文梳理文献，收集了九个关于网络攻击优势的论点和九个关于防御优势的论点，并额外整合了海利、耶尔维斯和南德拉乔格分别提出的四十八个关于网络冲突与竞争特征的论点。随后，探讨在不同人工智能发展水平下这些论点可能发生的变化。研究发现，网络空间过于复杂，无法简单判断人工智能整体上会增强进攻或防御。人工智能将提升某些方面，抑制其他方面，部分领域则保持不变。本文共归纳并呈现了四十四种预期中人工智能将影响网络攻防平衡及网络冲突特征的方式。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Unlike other domains of conflict, and unlike other fields with high anticipated risk from AI, the cyber domain is intrinsically digital with a tight feedback loop between AI training and cyber application. Cyber may have some of the largest and earliest impacts from AI, so it is important to understand how the cyber domain may change as AI continues to advance. Our approach reviewed the literature, collecting nine arguments that have been proposed for offensive advantage in cyber conflict and nine proposed arguments for defensive advantage. We include an additional forty-eight arguments that have been proposed to give cyber conflict and competition its character as collected separately by Healey, Jervis, and Nandrajog. We then consider how each of those arguments and propositions might change with varying degrees of AI advancement. We find that the cyber domain is too multifaceted for a single answer to whether AI will enhance offense or defense broadly. AI will improve some aspects, hinder others, and leave some aspects unchanged. We collect and present forty-four ways that we expect AI to impact the cyber offense-defense balance and the character of cyber conflict and competition.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品；中文卡片由大模型生成，请以原文为准。