arXiv:2504.13453cs.LGnlin.CD2025-04被引 1

用机器学习预测多摆系统的混沌行为,提升对复杂系统预判能力。

Using Machine Learning and Neural Networks to Analyze and Predict Chaos in Multi-Pendulum and Chaotic Systems

  • 采用滑动窗口与时间步两种方法生成和训练数据,捕捉混沌动态
  • 双摆系统中LSTM模型在有无摩擦下均表现最优,三摆系统则依场景不同选VRNN或GRU
  • 结合李雅普诺夫指数分析系统稳定性,适合研究复杂动力学的科研人员

混沌系统具有对初始条件及外部因素的高度敏感性,广泛存在于天气变化、疾病传播乃至金融市场中。本研究评估了10种机器学习模型与神经网络在预测多摆系统中的表现,基于均方根误差(RMSE)和决定系数(R²)。通过四阶龙格-库塔法(ODE-RK4)生成摆角随时间演化的合成数据。初始采用单步滑动窗口法,预测第50步状态;为更准确捕捉混沌行为,转而采用时间步方法,使用不同初始角度训练模型,并在全新初始条件下测试以评估其泛化能力。同时利用李雅普诺夫指数评估系统稳定性。结果表明:双摆系统中,无论是否有摩擦,长短期记忆网络(LSTM)在两种方法中表现最佳;三摆系统中,滑动窗口下最优为普通循环神经网络(VRNN),时间步方法下为门控循环单元(GRU),但在有摩擦情况下仍以LSTM为优。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

A chaotic system is a highly volatile system characterized by its sensitive dependence on initial conditions and outside factors. Chaotic systems are prevalent throughout the world today: in weather patterns, disease outbreaks, and even financial markets. Chaotic systems are seen in every field of science and humanities, so being able to predict these systems is greatly beneficial to society. In this study, we evaluate 10 different machine learning models and neural networks [1] based on Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and R^2 values for their ability to predict one of these systems, the multi-pendulum. We begin by generating synthetic data representing the angles of the pendulum over time using the Runge Kutta Method for solving 4th Order Differential Equations (ODE-RK4) [2]. At first, we used the single-step sliding window approach, predicting the 50st step after training for steps 0-49 and so forth. However, to more accurately cover chaotic motion and behavior in these systems, we transitioned to a time-step based approach. Here, we trained the model/network on many initial angles and tested it on a completely new set of initial angles, or 'in-between' to capture chaotic motion to its fullest extent. We also evaluated the stability of the system using Lyapunov exponents. We concluded that for a double pendulum, the best model was the Long Short Term Memory Network (LSTM)[3] for the sliding window and time step approaches in both friction and frictionless scenarios. For triple pendulum, the Vanilla Recurrent Neural Network (VRNN)[4] was the best for the sliding window and Gated Recurrent Network (GRU) [5] was the best for the time step approach, but for friction, LSTM was the best.

混沌系统神经网络时间序列预测多摆系统

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