用流体共性结构引导生成,实现混沌系统长期物理一致模拟
Generative emulation of chaotic dynamics with coherent prior
- 以大尺度相干结构为先验,在去噪过程中引导生成
- 在科莫戈罗夫流、浅水方程等系统上实现数百步稳定预测
- 适合需要长时序物理一致仿真的气候与流体研究者
数据驱动的非线性动力学模拟因长期性能退化常产生不合理的输出而面临挑战。现有生成建模方法虽能提供不确定性量化与修正,但生成质量高度依赖条件先验选择。本文提出高效生成框架Cohesion,融合湍流理论与基于扩散模型的建模思想:在去噪过程中以底层动力学的大尺度相干结构作为引导,逐步解析小尺度波动。这些相干先验通过降阶模型(如深度库普曼算子)高效近似,可快速生成长时间序列先验,且在扩展预测时保持稳定。由此可将预报重构为强化学习中的轨迹规划任务,仅需一次条件去噪完成全序列生成,显著降低自回归方法的计算成本。在科莫戈罗夫流、浅水方程及次季节至季节气候动力系统等复杂混沌系统上的实证表明,Cohesion具备优越的长期预测能力,即使在部分观测引导下仍能高效生成物理一致的模拟结果。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Data-driven emulation of nonlinear dynamics is challenging due to long-range skill decay that often produces physically unrealistic outputs. Recent advances in generative modeling aim to address these issues by providing uncertainty quantification and correction. However, the quality of generated simulation remains heavily dependent on the choice of conditioning priors. In this work, we present an efficient generative framework for dynamics emulation, unifying principles of turbulence with diffusion-based modeling: Cohesion. Specifically, our method estimates large-scale coherent structure of the underlying dynamics as guidance during the denoising process, where small-scale fluctuation in the flow is then resolved. These coherent priors are efficiently approximated using reduced-order models, such as deep Koopman operators, that allow for rapid generation of long prior sequences while maintaining stability over extended forecasting horizon. With this gain, we can reframe forecasting as trajectory planning, a common task in reinforcement learning, where conditional denoising is performed once over entire sequences, minimizing the computational cost of autoregressive-based generative methods. Empirical evaluations on chaotic systems of increasing complexity, including Kolmogorov flow, shallow water equations, and subseasonal-to-seasonal climate dynamics, demonstrate Cohesion superior long-range forecasting skill that can efficiently generate physically-consistent simulations, even in the presence of partially-observed guidance.
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