用多模态数据提前预测新生儿体重,准确率达94%以上。
M-TabNet: A Multi-Encoder Transformer Model for Predicting Neonatal Birth Weight from Multimodal Data
- 设计多编码器Transformer模型融合生理、营养、基因等多元数据
- 早期预测误差仅122克,独立验证误差更低至105克
- 可解释性强,识别出母亲年龄、吸烟和维生素B12关键影响因素
出生体重(BW)是新生儿健康的关键指标,低出生体重(LBW)与死亡率和发病率升高相关。早期预测BW可实现及时干预;然而,现有方法如超声波在孕20周前准确性下降且受操作者影响。现有模型常忽视营养与遗传因素,主要关注生理和生活方式。本研究提出一种基于注意力的多编码器Transformer模型,用于孕12周前的早期BW预测。模型有效整合母体生理、生活方式、营养及遗传数据,克服了先前注意力模型(如TabNet)的局限性。在自建私有数据集上,模型达到均方误差(MAE)122克,决定系数(R-squared)0.94,表现出高预测精度与可扩展性。独立验证显示在IEEE儿童数据集上MAE为105克,R-squared达0.95,具有强泛化能力。为提升临床应用,将预测结果分类为低体重与正常,灵敏度97.55%,特异性94.48%,支持早期风险分层。通过特征重要性与SHAP分析增强可解释性,凸显母亲年龄、烟草暴露和维生素B12状态的关键作用,遗传因素影响较小。结果表明,先进深度学习模型有望显著提升早期BW预测能力,为临床提供可靠、可解释且个性化的妊娠风险识别工具。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Birth weight (BW) is a key indicator of neonatal health, with low birth weight (LBW) linked to increased mortality and morbidity. Early prediction of BW enables timely interventions; however, current methods like ultrasonography have limitations, including reduced accuracy before 20 weeks and operator dependent variability. Existing models often neglect nutritional and genetic influences, focusing mainly on physiological and lifestyle factors. This study presents an attention-based transformer model with a multi-encoder architecture for early (less than 12 weeks of gestation) BW prediction. Our model effectively integrates diverse maternal data such as physiological, lifestyle, nutritional, and genetic, addressing limitations seen in prior attention-based models such as TabNet. The model achieves a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 122 grams and an R-squared value of 0.94, demonstrating high predictive accuracy and interoperability with our in-house private dataset. Independent validation confirms generalizability (MAE: 105 grams, R-squared: 0.95) with the IEEE children dataset. To enhance clinical utility, predicted BW is classified into low and normal categories, achieving a sensitivity of 97.55% and a specificity of 94.48%, facilitating early risk stratification. Model interpretability is reinforced through feature importance and SHAP analyses, highlighting significant influences of maternal age, tobacco exposure, and vitamin B12 status, with genetic factors playing a secondary role. Our results emphasize the potential of advanced deep-learning models to improve early BW prediction, offering clinicians a robust, interpretable, and personalized tool for identifying pregnancies at risk and optimizing neonatal outcomes.
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