arXiv:2504.15691stat.MLcs.LG2025-04中稿 · AISTATS2025

针对高维时间序列,提出融合低秩与稀疏结构的迁移学习方法。

Transfer Learning for High-dimensional Reduced Rank Time Series Models

  • 设计适用于低秩+稀疏结构VAR模型的迁移学习算法。
  • 理论证明参数一致性和渐近分布,可构建置信区间。
  • 能自动筛选辅助数据中有价值的观测,适合时序建模者。

迁移学习旨在通过利用额外数据源的知识来提升目标数据的估计与推断效果。尽管已有研究在高维稀疏模型中探索了独立观测的迁移学习,但对具有时间依赖性的时序模型研究仍较有限。本文聚焦于带时间依赖的序列数据,关注向量自回归模型(VAR),其转移矩阵可分解为稀疏矩阵与低秩矩阵之和。我们提出一种专用于此类高维低秩稀疏VAR模型的迁移学习算法,并引入新方法从辅助数据集中选择信息量大的观测。理论分析表明,在弱条件下,该方法可实现参数一致性、信息集选择正确性及估计量的渐近分布,从而支持逐元素置信区间构建。实验部分通过模拟与真实数据验证了方法的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The objective of transfer learning is to enhance estimation and inference in a target data by leveraging knowledge gained from additional sources. Recent studies have explored transfer learning for independent observations in complex, high-dimensional models assuming sparsity, yet research on time series models remains limited. Our focus is on transfer learning for sequences of observations with temporal dependencies and a more intricate model parameter structure. Specifically, we investigate the vector autoregressive model (VAR), a widely recognized model for time series data, where the transition matrix can be deconstructed into a combination of a sparse matrix and a low-rank one. We propose a new transfer learning algorithm tailored for estimating high-dimensional VAR models characterized by low-rank and sparse structures. Additionally, we present a novel approach for selecting informative observations from auxiliary datasets. Theoretical guarantees are established, encompassing model parameter consistency, informative set selection, and the asymptotic distribution of estimators under mild conditions. The latter facilitates the construction of entry-wise confidence intervals for model parameters. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical efficacy of our methodologies through both simulated and real-world datasets.

时间序列迁移学习VAR模型低秩稀疏

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