arXiv:2504.17461cs.LGcs.AI2025-04中稿 · 10th International…被引 1

对比了城市污水系统中模型的预测能力、复杂度与抗干扰性,为轻量级部署提供依据。

Evaluating Time Series Models for Urban Wastewater Management: Predictive Performance, Model Complexity and Resilience

  • 设计评估协议,从性能、复杂度和鲁棒性三方面比较神经网络模型。
  • 本地模型虽性能略低,但更适应分布式场景,具备更强抗干扰能力。
  • 长时序预测模型对数据扰动更鲁棒,适合物联网部署与安全防护。

气候变化加剧极端降雨频率,给城市合流制排水系统(CSS)带来巨大压力。超载导致未经处理的污水溢流至地表水体,威胁环境与公共健康。传统物理模型虽有效,但维护成本高且难以适应动态变化。机器学习(ML)方法提供了低成本、高适应性的替代方案。为系统评估ML在城市基础设施建模中的潜力,本文提出一套评估神经网络架构在CSS时间序列预测中的协议,涵盖预测性能、模型复杂度及对扰动的鲁棒性。特别关注峰值事件与关键波动表现,因这些是城市污水处理管理的核心场景。为探索适合物联网部署的轻量化模型,比较全局模型(依赖全部数据)与局部模型(仅依赖邻近传感器)的性能。此外,引入误差模型评估网络中断或对抗攻击下的系统韧性。结果表明:尽管全局模型预测性能更高,本地模型在去中心化场景下仍具足够鲁棒性,保障系统可靠建模;具有更长原生预测时长的模型对数据扰动表现出更强稳定性。研究成果有助于构建可解释、可靠的机器学习解决方案,推动可持续的城市污水处理管理。代码已开源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Climate change increases the frequency of extreme rainfall, placing a significant strain on urban infrastructures, especially Combined Sewer Systems (CSS). Overflows from overburdened CSS release untreated wastewater into surface waters, posing environmental and public health risks. Although traditional physics-based models are effective, they are costly to maintain and difficult to adapt to evolving system dynamics. Machine Learning (ML) approaches offer cost-efficient alternatives with greater adaptability. To systematically assess the potential of ML for modeling urban infrastructure systems, we propose a protocol for evaluating Neural Network architectures for CSS time series forecasting with respect to predictive performance, model complexity, and robustness to perturbations. In addition, we assess model performance on peak events and critical fluctuations, as these are the key regimes for urban wastewater management. To investigate the feasibility of lightweight models suitable for IoT deployment, we compare global models, which have access to all information, with local models, which rely solely on nearby sensor readings. Additionally, to explore the security risks posed by network outages or adversarial attacks on urban infrastructure, we introduce error models that assess the resilience of models. Our results demonstrate that while global models achieve higher predictive performance, local models provide sufficient resilience in decentralized scenarios, ensuring robust modeling of urban infrastructure. Furthermore, models with longer native forecast horizons exhibit greater robustness to data perturbations. These findings contribute to the development of interpretable and reliable ML solutions for sustainable urban wastewater management. The implementation is available in our GitHub repository.

城市污水时间序列机器学习鲁棒性

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