arXiv:2504.17717cs.LGcs.AI2025-04被引 3

用患者相似性分析提前预测多重耐药,兼顾准确与可解释性。

Early Detection of Multidrug Resistance Using Multivariate Time Series Analysis and Interpretable Patient-Similarity Representations

  • 将患者建模为多变量时间序列,通过相似性度量捕捉临床动态
  • 在真实ICU数据上达到81% AUC,优于传统模型
  • 可识别高危人群和关键风险因素,适合临床决策支持

多重耐药(MDR)是全球重大健康挑战,导致住院时间延长、医疗成本上升和死亡率增加。本文提出一种可解释的机器学习框架,用于早期预测MDR,兼顾准确性与可解释性。患者被建模为多变量时间序列(MTS),反映临床进程及患者间相互作用。采用描述性统计、动态时间规整(DTW)和时间聚类核(Time Cluster Kernel)量化患者相似性,输入逻辑回归、随机森林和支持向量机进行分类,并通过降维与核变换提升性能。为增强可解释性,构建基于相似性的患者网络,利用谱聚类和t-SNE识别与MDR相关的亚群并可视化高风险簇,揭示临床相关模式。在Fuenlabrada大学医院的ICU电子病历数据上验证,模型取得81% AUC,优于基线机器学习与深度学习模型。该方法识别出长期抗生素使用、侵入性操作、合并感染和延长ICU住院等关键风险因素,并发现具有临床意义的患者集群。代码与结果已开源。结论:结合图结构患者相似性表示的分析方法,能实现精准预测并提供可解释洞察,有助于早期预警、风险识别与患者分层,展现可解释机器学习在重症监护中的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Background and Objectives: Multidrug Resistance (MDR) is a critical global health issue, causing increased hospital stays, healthcare costs, and mortality. This study proposes an interpretable Machine Learning (ML) framework for MDR prediction, aiming for both accurate inference and enhanced explainability. Methods: Patients are modeled as Multivariate Time Series (MTS), capturing clinical progression and patient-to-patient interactions. Similarity among patients is quantified using MTS-based methods: descriptive statistics, Dynamic Time Warping, and Time Cluster Kernel. These similarity measures serve as inputs for MDR classification via Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machines, with dimensionality reduction and kernel transformations improving model performance. For explainability, patient similarity networks are constructed from these metrics. Spectral clustering and t-SNE are applied to identify MDR-related subgroups and visualize high-risk clusters, enabling insight into clinically relevant patterns. Results: The framework was validated on ICU Electronic Health Records from the University Hospital of Fuenlabrada, achieving an AUC of 81%. It outperforms baseline ML and deep learning models by leveraging graph-based patient similarity. The approach identifies key risk factors -- prolonged antibiotic use, invasive procedures, co-infections, and extended ICU stays -- and reveals clinically meaningful clusters. Code and results are available at \https://github.com/oscarescuderoarnanz/DM4MTS. Conclusions: Patient similarity representations combined with graph-based analysis provide accurate MDR prediction and interpretable insights. This method supports early detection, risk factor identification, and patient stratification, highlighting the potential of explainable ML in critical care.

多重耐药可解释AIICU预测时间序列

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