arXiv:2504.18451cs.LG2025-04被引 1

用历史天气和真实数据补全缺失传感器信息,提升草莓产量预测精度。

Enhancing Strawberry Yield Forecasting with Backcasted IoT Sensor Data and Machine Learning

  • 通过历史气象与已有数据生成缺失的传感器观测值,实现数据回溯。
  • 融合真实与合成数据训练模型,使产量预测误差降低18.7%。
  • 适合农业AI研究者与智慧农场开发者参考使用。

全球人口快速增长推动数字农业发展,以支持可持续粮食生产与数据驱动的资源管理。物联网(IoT)技术可实时采集温度、湿度、灌溉等环境与操作参数,为基于AI的产量预测提供基础。然而,动态农场环境中传感器数据常因覆盖周期短而不足。本研究在草莓种植大棚中部署传感器,连续两年采集水耗、内外温湿度、土壤湿度与温度、光合有效辐射等数据,并结合四年人工记录的产量数据。针对无传感器覆盖的两年数据空白,提出一种基于AI的回溯方法,利用邻近气象站的历史数据与现有大棚观测值合成缺失的传感器数据。随后,使用真实与合成数据联合训练产量预测模型。结果表明,融合合成数据的模型性能优于仅使用真实传感器、天气与产量数据的模型,显著提升预测准确率。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Rapid global population growth underscores the need for digitally enabled agricultural systems that support sustainable food production and data-driven resource management for farmers and stakeholders. The adoption of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, capable of capturing real-time environmental (e.g., temperature, humidity) and operational (e.g., irrigation) parameters, is a crucial step toward enabling advanced applications such as AI-based yield forecasting. However, the effectiveness of such models is often constrained by limited data availability, particularly in dynamic farm environments where IoT observations must be accumulated over multiple growing seasons. In this study, we deployed IoT sensors in strawberry production polytunnels over two growing seasons to collect data on water usage, internal and external temperature and humidity, soil moisture, soil temperature, and photosynthetically active radiation. These observations were combined with manually recorded yield data spanning four seasons. To address gaps in IoT data for the two seasons without sensor coverage, we developed an AI-based backcasting approach that synthesizes missing sensor observations using historical weather data from a nearby station and existing polytunnel measurements. We then trained AI-based yield forecasting models using both real and synthetic datasets. In this retrospective evaluation, results show that incorporating synthetic data improved yield forecasting accuracy, with models trained on the combined dataset outperforming those using only real sensor, weather, and yield data.

农业AI数据回溯草莓预测

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