用符号回归挖掘地磁暴演变规律,模型更准且可解释。
Discovering Governing Equations of Geomagnetic Storm Dynamics with Symbolic Regression
- 基于太阳风数据,用进化算法自动推导地磁暴强度变化方程。
- 在2003、2015、2017三次地磁暴事件中,预测精度优于经典模型。
- 结果为闭式表达式,能捕捉非线性关系和阈值效应,适合空间天气研究者。
地磁暴是太阳风与地球磁层相互作用引发的大规模扰动,对空基和地基基础设施构成重大威胁。地磁扰动时间(Dst)指数通过测量全球磁场变化来量化地磁暴强度。本研究采用符号回归方法,从历史数据中推导描述Dst指数随时间演化的数据驱动方程。数据来自NASA OMNIweb数据库,包含太阳风密度、流速、对流电场、动压和磁压等参数。使用PySR框架——一种基于进化算法的符号回归库——识别出dDst/dt与关键太阳风变量之间的数学表达式。所得模型涵盖不同复杂度层级,并与经典经验模型(如Burton-McPherron-Russell和O'Brien-McPherron模型)进行对比。最佳符号回归模型在多数情况下表现更优,尤其在中等强度地磁暴期间;同时保持物理可解释性。性能评估覆盖2003年万圣节风暴、2015年圣帕特里克节风暴及2017年一次中等强度风暴。结果提供可解释的闭式表达式,有效捕捉了Dst演变中的非线性依赖和阈值效应。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Geomagnetic storms are large-scale disturbances of the Earth's magnetosphere driven by solar wind interactions, posing significant risks to space-based and ground-based infrastructure. The Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index quantifies geomagnetic storm intensity by measuring global magnetic field variations. This study applies symbolic regression to derive data-driven equations describing the temporal evolution of the Dst index. We use historical data from the NASA OMNIweb database, including solar wind density, bulk velocity, convective electric field, dynamic pressure, and magnetic pressure. The PySR framework, an evolutionary algorithm-based symbolic regression library, is used to identify mathematical expressions linking dDst/dt to key solar wind. The resulting models include a hierarchy of complexity levels and enable a comparison with well-established empirical models such as the Burton-McPherron-Russell and O'Brien-McPherron models. The best-performing symbolic regression models demonstrate superior accuracy in most cases, particularly during moderate geomagnetic storms, while maintaining physical interpretability. Performance evaluation on historical storm events includes the 2003 Halloween Storm, the 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm, and a 2017 moderate storm. The results provide interpretable, closed-form expressions that capture nonlinear dependencies and thresholding effects in Dst evolution.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。