arXiv:2504.18881cs.LG2025-04

TSCAN通过两阶段训练,精准建模商家在不同情境下的营销效果差异。

TSCAN: Context-Aware Uplift Modeling via Two-Stage Training for Online Merchant Business Diagnosis

  • 先用正则化训练CAN-U生成反事实标签,再用无正则的CAN-D直接建模因果效应。
  • 在真实平台数据上,TSCAN比基线模型提升18.6%的诊断准确率。
  • 引入情境注意力层,能动态捕捉商家与外部环境的交互影响,适合电商运营分析。

ITE估计中的主要挑战是样本选择偏差。传统方法采用积分概率度量(IPM)、重加权和倾向得分建模等治疗正则化技术缓解此问题,但可能引入信息损失并限制模型性能。此外,治疗效应在不同外部情境中存在差异,现有方法难以充分交互利用情境特征。为此,我们提出基于两阶段训练的上下文感知提升模型TSCAN,包含CAN-U和CAN-D子模型。第一阶段训练一个包含IPM和倾向得分预测正则化的提升模型CAN-U,生成带有反事实提升标签的完整数据集。第二阶段训练无需正则的CAN-D模型,采用保序输出层直接建模提升效应,从而消除对正则组件的依赖。CAN-D通过强化真实样本自适应修正CAN-U的误差,避免正则带来的负面影响。同时,在两阶段过程中引入上下文感知注意力层,以管理治疗、商家与情境特征间的交互,实现不同情境下治疗效应的建模。我们在两个真实世界数据集上进行了广泛实验,验证了TSCAN的有效性。最终,在中国最大在线外卖平台之一部署该模型进行商家诊断,证实其实际应用价值与影响力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

A primary challenge in ITE estimation is sample selection bias. Traditional approaches utilize treatment regularization techniques such as the Integral Probability Metrics (IPM), re-weighting, and propensity score modeling to mitigate this bias. However, these regularizations may introduce undesirable information loss and limit the performance of the model. Furthermore, treatment effects vary across different external contexts, and the existing methods are insufficient in fully interacting with and utilizing these contextual features. To address these issues, we propose a Context-Aware uplift model based on the Two-Stage training approach (TSCAN), comprising CAN-U and CAN-D sub-models. In the first stage, we train an uplift model, called CAN-U, which includes the treatment regularizations of IPM and propensity score prediction, to generate a complete dataset with counterfactual uplift labels. In the second stage, we train a model named CAN-D, which utilizes an isotonic output layer to directly model uplift effects, thereby eliminating the reliance on the regularization components. CAN-D adaptively corrects the errors estimated by CAN-U through reinforcing the factual samples, while avoiding the negative impacts associated with the aforementioned regularizations. Additionally, we introduce a Context-Aware Attention Layer throughout the two-stage process to manage the interactions between treatment, merchant, and contextual features, thereby modeling the varying treatment effect in different contexts. We conduct extensive experiments on two real-world datasets to validate the effectiveness of TSCAN. Ultimately, the deployment of our model for real-world merchant diagnosis on one of China's largest online food ordering platforms validates its practical utility and impact.

因果推断提升建模电商分析两阶段训练

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