用注意力机制同时捕捉交通趋势与波动,提升短期预测精度。
Enhancing short-term traffic prediction by integrating trends and fluctuations with attention mechanism
- 并行处理趋势与波动特征,融合互补信息。
- 注意力机制使模型聚焦关键时间点,提升短时预测准确率。
- 适合城市交通规划与拥堵管理场景使用。
交通流量预测是智能交通系统的关键,但因长期趋势与短期波动的交互作用,精准预测仍具挑战。标准深度学习模型因架构固有特性,易平滑细微波动而忽略瞬时变化,根源在于低通滤波效应、门控偏差及侧重长期记忆的更新机制。为此,本文提出一种混合深度学习框架,通过并行处理两种输入特征,分别捕捉交通流动态中的长期趋势与短期波动。进一步引入Bahdanau注意力机制,使模型能选择性关注关键时间步,增强对拥堵等瞬态现象的预测能力。实验表明,双分支学习到的特征具有互补性,显著提升多预测时长下的拟合优度。尤其在短期预测中,注意力机制有效提升了对即时波动的捕捉能力,尽管长期趋势整合仍有待改进。该框架有助于提升交通预测的鲁棒性与精确度,支持更有效的拥堵缓解与城市出行规划。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Traffic flow prediction is a critical component of intelligent transportation systems, yet accurately forecasting traffic remains challenging due to the interaction between long-term trends and short-term fluctuations. Standard deep learning models often struggle with these challenges because their architectures inherently smooth over fine-grained fluctuations while focusing on general trends. This limitation arises from low-pass filtering effects, gate biases favoring stability, and memory update mechanisms that prioritize long-term information retention. To address these shortcomings, this study introduces a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates both long-term trend and short-term fluctuation information using two input features processed in parallel, designed to capture complementary aspects of traffic flow dynamics. Further, our approach leverages attention mechanisms, specifically Bahdanau attention, to selectively focus on critical time steps within traffic data, enhancing the model's ability to predict congestion and other transient phenomena. Experimental results demonstrate that features learned from both branches are complementary, significantly improving the goodness-of-fit statistics across multiple prediction horizons compared to a baseline model. Notably, the attention mechanism enhances short-term forecast accuracy by directly targeting immediate fluctuations, though challenges remain in fully integrating long-term trends. This framework can contribute to more effective congestion mitigation and urban mobility planning by advancing the robustness and precision of traffic prediction models.
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