用LSTM模型结合气象数据,精准预测美国大陆积雪水当量。
A Physically Driven Long Short Term Memory Model for Estimating Snow Water Equivalent over the Continental United States
- 分两步预测:先判断是否有雪,再估算有雪时的积雪量。
- 雪存在判断准确率超93%,积雪量估算相关系数达0.9。
- 模型可跨区域和时间推广,适用于复杂地形与气候条件。
积雪是陆面模型的重要输入。季节性积雪估计通常通过过程驱动的再分析产品或实地观测获得。然而,再分析产品计算成本高且时空分辨率固定,而实地观测则分布稀疏且局部性强。为解决这些问题并分析物理、形态与地质条件对积雪的影响,我们构建了一个长短期记忆(LSTM)网络,基于气象时间序列与静态空间/地形特征来估计积雪水当量(SWE)。该模型将SWE估计分为两个任务:(i) 判定某日是否有雪的分类任务;(ii) 在有雪情况下估算当日积雪量的回归任务。模型使用美国西部的SNOw TELemetry(SNOTEL)雪垫观测数据进行训练。结果表明,训练后的模型在雪存在判断上的准确率不低于93%,其积雪量估计的相关系数约为0.9。同时,模型在未见过的时空区域上也表现出良好的泛化能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Snow is an essential input for various land surface models. Seasonal snow estimates are available as snow water equivalent (SWE) from process-based reanalysis products or locally from in situ measurements. While the reanalysis products are computationally expensive and available at only fixed spatial and temporal resolutions, the in situ measurements are highly localized and sparse. To address these issues and enable the analysis of the effect of a large suite of physical, morphological, and geological conditions on the presence and amount of snow, we build a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, which is able to estimate the SWE based on time series input of the various physical/meteorological factors as well static spatial/morphological factors. Specifically, this model breaks down the SWE estimation into two separate tasks: (i) a classification task that indicates the presence/absence of snow on a specific day and (ii) a regression task that indicates the height of the SWE on a specific day in the case of snow presence. The model is trained using physical/in situ SWE measurements from the SNOw TELemetry (SNOTEL) snow pillows in the western United States. We will show that trained LSTM models have a classification accuracy of $\geq 93\%$ for the presence of snow and a coefficient of correlation of $\sim 0.9$ concerning their SWE estimates. We will also demonstrate that the models can generalize both spatially and temporally to previously unseen data.
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